Has the slowdown begun?

Posted on April 19, 2024 by grim

From CNBC:

March homes sales dropped despite a surge in supply. Here’s why.

Sales of previously owned homes dropped 4.3% in March compared with February, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 3.7% lower than in March 2023. This came after a big jump in sales in February.

Rising mortgage rates are likely the cause of the slowdown.

This sales count is based on closings from contracts likely signed in January and February. Mortgage rates stayed lower in January, in the mid 6% range on the popular 30-year fixed loan. They then shot higher in February.

Regionally, sales fell everywhere except in the Northeast, where they rose 4.2% month to month. Sales dropped hardest in the West, down 8.2%. Prices are highest in the West.

“Though rebounding from cyclical lows, home sales are stuck because interest rates have not made any major moves,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, in a release. “There are nearly six million more jobs now compared to pre-COVID highs, which suggests more aspiring home buyers exist in the market.”

Inventory did improve slightly, rising 4.7% month to month to 1.11 million homes for sale at the end of March. That’s a 3.2-month supply at the current sales pace. Inventory is now 14.4% higher than March of last year.

More supply did not cool home prices, however. The median price of an existing home sold in March was $393,500, up 4.8% from the year before. It’s also the highest price ever for the month of March. The annual comparison was, however, slightly lower than the month before.

The spring housing market is getting more competitive, and moving faster. The typical home sat on the market for just 33 days compared with 38 days in February.

Investors pulled back a bit, making up 15% of sales, compared with 21% in February and 17% in March of last year. First-time buyers did make a comeback though, accounting for 32% of sales, up from 26% in February and 28% the year before.

All-cash purchases accounted for 28% of sales, down from 33% in February but up from 27% one year ago. Pre-pandemic, that share was generally around 20%.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 80 Comments

Mortgage rates hit 4 month high

Posted on April 18, 2024 by grim

From the Real Deal:

Mortgage applications jump as buyers worry about rising rates

Mortgage activity increased anyways, suggesting homebuyers and homeowners are concerned rates aren’t done rising.

Applications for mortgage purchases and refinancings rose 3.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior period for the week ending on Apr. 12, according to the weekly Mortgage Bankers Association survey. The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased too, from 7.01 percent to 7.13 percent.

Purchase-loan applications increased 5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week. On an unadjusted basis, it rose 6 percent from the previous week, but was 10 percent below last year’s activity.

The refinancing index, meanwhile, increased a minimal 0.5 percent from the previous week and 11 percent year-over-year.

Last week was the second in a row with rising rates, driven in part by data showing a strong economy and persistent inflation; last week’s average rate was the highest since December. 

“Despite these higher rates, application activity picked up, possibly as some borrowers decided to act in case rates continue to rise,” MBA chief economist Joel Kan said in a statement.
…
The average contract interest rate for a 30-year rate with jumbo loan balances (greater than $766,550) increased 27 basis points to 7.4 percent, while the average contract interest rate for a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 6.46 percent to 6.64 percent.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 62 Comments

The boomers won’t go

Posted on April 17, 2024 by grim

Hat Tip VSG & Chi – From the WSJ:

Boomers Bought Up the Big Homes. Now They’re Not Budging.

Baby boomers bought up many of the big homes across the U.S. when they were raising their families. Now they’re staying put, even though their kids are all grown up. 

Boomers are on top in a housing market where tight inventory, higher interest rates and steep prices are making homeownership less affordable for the average family. Many of these older homeowners paid off their mortgages on properties that have appreciated tremendously in value. 

Some are happy with their big houses. Others would like to downsize, but are deterred by the same high costs that are restraining other prospective buyers on lower rungs of the housing economy. Many are working longer or planning on an active retirement, and are in no rush to move to a retirement community. 

About 28% of all U.S. homes with three or more bedrooms are owned by people between the ages of 60 and 78 living by themselves or with another adult, according to a Redfin analysis of 2022 census data. Millennials living with children own just 14% of these bigger homes. A recent Fannie Mae survey found that most Americans 60 and older don’t intend to ever move. 

Just a decade earlier, empty-nesters in the silent generation, who at the time were about 67 to 84, owned 16% of homes with three or more bedrooms. Meanwhile, members of Generation X with kids, who were 32 to 47, owned 19% of those large homes, Redfin found. 

Boomers own half of all of the $32 trillion in home equity in the U.S., according to a Redfin analysis of Federal Reserve data.

For years, some have predicted that boomers would start selling off their big houses en masse, flooding the market with properties. Instead, many aren’t budging, similar to younger homeowners who don’t want to give up their low-rate mortgages.

The problems, though, are deeper than boomers not moving.

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 59 Comments

Single family as a luxury good

Posted on April 15, 2024 by grim

From Marketplace:

Home prices have risen 423% in 40 years, fueling economic discontent 

We’ve been dealing with high inflation in this economy over the last several years, with everything from groceries to new vehicles to construction supplies soaring in price.

But for one item in particular — houses — we’ve seen such sharp inflation over decades that it’s starting to change the landscape of American economic life. What happens in society, and in history, when costs for basic necessities, like shelter and food, shoot up in price? 

Let’s start by going back four decades, to 1984. The movie “Ghostbusters” was a blockbuster that year. And the median price of a new home wasn’t so scary: $79,900 in the fourth quarter of 1984, according to data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Since then, consumer prices overall have risen 203%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics information and analysis section. Meanwhile, the median price of a new home was $417,700 in the fourth quarter of 2023. That works out to an inflation rate of 423%.

“There’s no question that the cost of a house has gone up relative to cost of living overall,” said Christopher Mayer, co-director of the Paul Milstein Center for Real Estate at Columbia Business School. “More and more, a single-family home has become a luxury good, which has not been the case in the United States until now. It’s a trend that, if it continues, I think will change society substantially.”

Mayer conducted research in the 2010s finding that approximately 80% of people 65 and older owned their own homes, including a significant proportion who had neither a high school nor a college degree.

He said that for previous generations, working-class homeownership was plausible, even likely. “Homeownership was not just about people in the middle or the upper middle class, homeownership was something that people in the lower middle class could have.” 

He’s seen this play out in his own family: “My in-laws lived in Redding, Pennsylvania; neither graduated from college. And yet, they were homeowners and owned multiple houses over their lives — having a part of the American dream. That would be very difficult for folks in the same circumstance, looking at the cost of homes today.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 139 Comments

Where does it stop?

Posted on April 12, 2024 by grim

From Patch:

Home Prices Jumped 10 Percent This Year In These NJ Counties

Atlantic

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $335,918
  • Percent change: 9.8 percent

Bergen

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $661,301
  • Percent change: 7.1 percent

Burlington

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $372,100
  • Percent change: 10.1 percent

Camden

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $308,033
  • Percent change: 11.6 percent

Cape May

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $685,882
  • Percent change: 4.8 percent

Cumberland

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $235,671
  • Percent change: 7.5 percent

Essex

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $581,327
  • Percent change: 9.5 percent

Gloucester

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $338,798
  • Percent change: 10.1 percent

Hudson

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $572,960
  • Percent change: 4.2 percent

Hunterdon

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $563,896
  • Percent change: 8.7 percent

Mercer

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $399,260
  • Percent change: 11.1 percent

Middlesex

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $500,177
  • Percent change: 8.5 percent

Monmouth

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $664,550
  • Percent change: 8.7 percent

Morris

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $616,032
  • Percent change: 10 percent

Ocean

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $486,446
  • Percent change: 8 percent

Passaic

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $510,780
  • Percent change: 8.6 percent

Salem

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $259,541
  • Percent change: 9.1 percent

Somerset

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $592,974
  • Percent change: 9.8 percent

Sussex

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $393,243
  • Percent change: 10.2 percent

Union

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $549,056
  • Percent change: 8.5 percent

Warren

  • Average home value (Feb. 2024): $378,316
  • Percent change: 8.6 percent
Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 119 Comments

Paterson Renaissance?

Posted on April 10, 2024 by grim

From the Record:

The Great Falls are essential to Paterson’s economic and cultural future

There aren’t many urban centers in America that have a waterfall a stone’s throw away from their downtown district. Well, part of Paterson’s point of difference is the Great Falls and the tremendous potential that the mighty cataract possesses.

When Alexander Hamilton saw the Falls, he saw the future. Therefore, in honor of our city’s founding father we are harnessing his vision to spark a renaissance in Paterson.

The rebirth of Hinchliffe Stadium was a significant step in our revitalization efforts. It put Paterson back in the win column with many more victories on the horizon. One of those wins is the anticipated opening of the Charles Muth Museum, which will help us tell the story of American integration with a nostalgic nod to the heroes of Negro League Baseball.

Just above Hinchliffe Stadium is Vista Park, the highest point in Paterson. It is an underutilized property that has tragically become a dumping ground. However, our plan is to invest $4 million in the site to transform it into a state-of-the-art park.
…
The Paterson Planning Board recently approved our ambitious vision for a rooftop restaurant, a food hall and a culinary arts school in the Great Falls District. The unanimous vote by the aforementioned body speaks to the synergy surrounding our desire to become a top-notch tourist destination.

The Paterson City Council gave our plan to auction off the former site of the Libby’s Lunch its stamp of approval. The property is ideally located and possesses the potential to be a restaurant, a café, or maybe even a boutique hotel.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 187 Comments

Montclair #4 in the country

Posted on April 8, 2024 by grim

From Patch:

NJ Town’s Real Estate Market Named One Of The Hottest In U.S.: Report

Montclair is not only the hottest town in New Jersey for real estate, but the fourth hottest in the entire country, according to Realtor.com data first reported by NJ.com.

So how exactly is “hot” defined in a real estate market? Realtor.com based its hotness rank on supply and demand data on its site — in other words, the unique views on property listings averaged along with the number of days the property has been listed, a representative told NJ.com. 

Other New Jersey towns that made the top 10 are Basking Ridge, Mount Laurel, and Ramsey, coming in at #5, #8, and #10, respectively.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 125 Comments

You can’t afford it

Posted on April 5, 2024 by grim

From Business Insider:

A record 550 cities now have average home values above $1 million

A record number of US cities have an average home value of more than $1 million — a sign that the housing market is becoming increasingly out-of-reach for some Americans as prices continue to soar.

The US has 550 cities where the typical home value is north of seven figures, according to a recent Zillow report. That’s the highest number of so-called “million-dollar” cities ever recorded, the real-estate-listings site said, up from 491 a year ago.

California had the highest concentration of million-dollar cities, with 210 where the average home value exceeded $1 million. New York had 66, and New Jersey — which saw the highest increase — had 49, the report found.
…
High borrowing costs have deterred homeowners from listing their properties for sale, creating a supply-demand imbalance that caused home prices to rise at a record pace in January, per the Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

“The housing market is tight with few homes available, and competition is still high for homes. That competitive pressure is pushing home values higher across the US,” Anushna Prakash, an economic analyst at Zillow, said in a note on Tuesday.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 48 Comments

Lazy men will destroy the housing market

Posted on April 4, 2024 by grim

From Yahoo Finance:

The ‘growing crisis of the young American male’ could send home prices falling for years or even decades, says the ‘Oracle of Wall Street’

Meredith Whitney, deemed the “Oracle of Wall Street” for successfully calling the financial crisis, says home prices are likely to fall substantially, and the reasons have to do with habits picked up by young guys.

“You have men staying single longer…and then you have what I call a growing crisis of the young American male…they’re twice as likely to live at home than women. So one out of five young men live at home with their parents, and these aren’t young men going to college and coming home for holiday breaks, these are young, grown men choosing to live at home,” Whitney told CNBC this morning.

The outcome could have profound effects on the housing market, she said.

“I think you’re going to start to see housing prices begin a multi-year/decade decline, just due to supply/demand dynamics,” Whitney said. “So you’ve had a demand, supply imbalance: more demand, less supply. And I think that’s going to invert.” So what that means is supply will then outweigh demand, which is why she sees home prices falling for years.

Whitney’s take is based in part on demographic shifts. The bulk of housing is owned by people and households over the age of 40, she said. But household formations are the lowest they’ve been in more than a century, which translates into a demand problem, she said today.

Yet many experts have predicted that home prices will only continue to go up from here. Mortgage rates reached a two-decade high last year, and people were still buying homes—and because there simply aren’t enough homes, demand outweighs supply, keeping home prices high. Whitney, however, is calling it differently as shifts within the housing world, and apparently among young male adults, occur. It’s not clear what data she is referring to here or in the information above.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate | 47 Comments

NJ led the Northeast in February

Posted on April 3, 2024 by grim

From Corelogic:

CoreLogic: US Annual Home Price Growth Slows but Still Up by Over 5% in February

    • U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.5% year over year in February and are expected to taper to 3.1% growth by February 2025.
    • Four of the top five states with the highest annual home price growth are in the Northeast: New Jersey, Rhode Island, Maine and Connecticut
    • The five states where home prices remain furthest from the summer 2022 peak are Idaho, Washington, Utah, Vermont and Montana
    • The Miami and San Diego metro areas continued to lead the country for annual growth in February, both at about 10%.

    U.S. annual home price growth remained mostly consistent with numbers seen since last fall in February but finally slowed as the residual impact of comparing gains with weak 2022 home prices wore off. CoreLogic projects that year-over-year home price gains will continue to rise at a slower pace for the rest of 2024, which suggests more certainty for potential homebuyers who have been waiting to get a foot in the door. As noted in the most recent US CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index report, an increase in for-sale inventory also benefits potential homebuyers, though affordability remains a concern, particularly if mortgage rates remain elevated throughout the spring homebuying season.

    “Home price growth pivoted in February, as the impact of the January 2023 Home Price Index bottom finally faded,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “As a result, the U.S. should begin to see slowing annual home price gains moving forward.”

    “Nevertheless,” Hepp continued, “with a 0.7% increase from January to February 2024, which is almost double the monthly increase recorded before the pandemic, spring home price gains are already off to a strong start despite continued mortgage rate volatility. That said, more inventory finally coming to market will likely translate to more options for buyers and fewer bidding wars, which typically keeps outsized price growth in check. Still, despite affordability challenges, homebuyer demand appears to favor already expensive, coastal markets with a limited availability of properties for sale.”

    Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 30 Comments

    A new era in NJ politics? Thanks Murphy!

    Posted on April 2, 2024 by grim

    From CNN:

    Federal court scraps New Jersey’s controversial ‘county line’ ballot design

    Voting rights advocates scored a major victory Friday in New Jersey when a federal judge struck down the use of a controversial primary ballot design that favored party-backed candidates.

    The decision is potentially a grave blow to the state’s powerful political machines, which have for decades used the so-called county line to prop up their endorsed candidates. The system is currently used in 19 of the Garden State’s 21 counties.

    The preliminary injunction granted by US District Judge Zahid Quraishi is almost certain to be appealed, but, for now, it means that New Jersey voters will use office block ballots – the standard across most of the country – during the June primary. The lawsuit was brought by Democratic Rep. Andy Kim, who is running for the seat of scandal-tarred incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez, and two other South Jersey-based House candidates, who argued that the current system is unconstitutional.

    Quraishi’s order includes specific language barring county elections officials from organizing their ballots “by column or row” and replacing it with a “randomized ballot order system … which affords each candidate for the same office an equal chance at obtaining the first ballot position.”

    Anger over the “county line” ballots has been growing for years in New Jersey, the only state that uses the design. Activists filed a lawsuit in 2021 that Kim, with the same lawyers, effectively revived with his Senate bid as he competed against party machine-favored rival Tammy Murphy, the first lady of New Jersey.

    But Murphy dropped out of the race earlier this week amid a grassroots backlash tied, in part, to frustration over the advantages conferred by “the line.”

    “Today’s decision is a victory for a fairer, more democratic politics in New Jersey. It’s a victory built from the incredible grassroots work of activists across our state who saw an undemocratic system marginalizing the voices of voters, and worked tirelessly to fix it,” Kim said in a statement that described the ruling as a triumph for those working “to restore and protect voting rights.”

    Posted in New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 35 Comments

    How much do you need? 2024 edition.

    Posted on April 1, 2024 by grim

    From Bankrate:

    Study: Americans need a six-figure salary to afford a typical home in nearly half of U.S. states

    A combination of high mortgage rates, rising home prices and low housing inventory over the last two years is pushing homeownership further out of reach for would-be homeowners, especially first-timers. To afford a median-priced home of $402,343, Americans need an annual income of $110,871, according to a new Bankrate analysis. That’s nearly a 50 percent increase in just the last four years.

    To better understand the housing affordability crunch across the U.S., Bankrate also calculated how much aspiring homeowners need to earn annually to afford a median-priced home in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, compared to four years ago. Bankrate’s analysis found Americans need to earn six figures to afford a median-priced home in 22 states and the District of Columbia. Four years ago, only six states and the District of Columbia required a salary that high to afford a median-priced home.

    Curious about your state? Here’s the annual salary you’ll need to afford a typical home in 2024.

    Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 51 Comments

    Living your best life in NJ

    Posted on March 31, 2024 by grim

    From Patch:

    Morris Is Most Expensive County In NJ For Household Bills, Study Finds

    A new study shows that Morris County residents are forking over more for their monthly bills on average than in any other county in the state. 

    The doxoINSIGHTS 2024 U.S. Household Bill Pay Report found that consumers across the country saw the amount they pay to keep up on household bills increase 4 percent since last year. 

    This report, which reflects actual bill payment activity in more than 97 percent of U.S. zip codes, identifies the most and least expensive states for Americans to live in — based on average monthly spending on actual household bill payments.

    The average American household spends $25,513 per year, or 34 percent of their income, on the most common bills, the study found. doxoINSIGHTS included the following bills in its calculations: Mortgage and rent, utilities, car loans, mobile phone, cable and internet, home security, and coverage for auto, home, and life insurance. 

    In the Garden State, the average cost is higher – which may not come as a surprise to residents in the state with the highest property taxes in the nation. The average household in New Jersey was found to pay $2,802 per month, or $33,627 per year on bills.

    The latest doxoINSIGHTS report says New Jersey residents’ bills are $8,114 higher per year than the U.S. average, which is actually a slight decrease from last year’s amount of $8,165. It still makes New Jersey the fourth-most expensive state when it comes to the average cost of bill payments, the study said. 

    Morris County residents have higher bills than the state average — and pay $15,009 more per year than the average U.S. citizen, the study said.

    The average household in Morris County pays $3,377 per month, or $40,521 per year on bills, the study found. Most of this money goes to housing, with mortgages and rent eating up a majority of the cost. Per the study, the average monthly mortgage bill in Morris County is $2,996 compared to $1,403 nationally; and the average monthly rent bill is $1,923 in Morris County and $1,300 nationally.

    Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate | 11 Comments

    NJ’s newest luxury residences

    Posted on March 29, 2024 by grim

    From the Star Ledger:

    Decaying former Playboy Club has been sold, N.J. mayor says

    The empty former Playboy Club — a longtime subject of fascination in northwestern New Jersey — has been sold, according to a local mayor.

    Vernon Mayor Anthony Rossi posted an announcement about the sale on his Facebook page earlier this month and said he met with the new owner. However, no official announcement had been made about the property as of Thursday and it is unclear if a deal was finalized.

    Rossi did not identify the new owner of the sprawling property in Vernon in Sussex County, which was last known as the Legends Resort & Country Club after the Playboy Club exited in the early 1980s.

    “I am happy to announce that LEGENDS HAS SOLD!” Rossi, who took office in January, wrote on Facebook in a March 14 post.

    “I met with the new owner in my office to discuss his plans. He has requested that we jointly work on a press release together outlining his plans, which will be released in the next few weeks,” the mayor added.

    Rossi said Thursday he was unsure what was happening with a possible deal and had not been given any additional information about whether a sale would be announced soon.

    The property’s owner, Metairie Corporation, has not announced a sale. The company’s attorney, Thomas Molica, did not respond Thursday to a request to comment.

    Posted in Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 41 Comments

    Home price jackpot? Think again.

    Posted on March 28, 2024 by grim

    From the NYT:

    How Much Higher Are Your Post-Pandemic Property Taxes?

    The median price for a single-family home in the United States rose about 40 percent from 2019 to 2022, peaking at $480,000 before receding to about $417,000 at the close of 2023. The higher home prices have led to higher property taxes, adding even more to a monthly housing budget. A recent study by CoreLogic found that from 2019 through 2023, the median U.S. single-family property-tax bill rose by nearly 24 percent, to about $2,826.

    Property taxes are determined on the county level, based on a home’s assessed value and the local tax rate. Reassessment timelines differ — taxable home values are determined either at the time of sale, annually, or on another schedule — so the pandemic price increases have affected rates differently depending on location. CoreLogic found that taxes rose 26.3 percent ($612) among homes that were reassessed since 2019, and 18.4 percent ($402) among those that were not. What’s a few hundred dollars over the course of 12 months? Maybe not a deal breaker in lower-cost counties where the tax rates are more manageable.

    But don’t tell that to homeowners in Westchester, just north of New York City, the most expensive tax county of all. According to a separate CoreLogic study, the median tax bill there in 2023 was $15,373. Just across the Hudson River, Rockland County, N.Y., followed, with $14,879 a year in property taxes; and New York County, otherwise known as Manhattan, had the third-highest taxes, with a median of $14,073 a year.

    Overall, the New York City area had the highest taxes in the country, with 13 of the 15 most expensive tax counties located in the city or its suburbs.

    Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Property Taxes | 61 Comments