Bright spot or bad sign?

Posted on July 30, 2025 by grim

My money is on these being flips.

From Redfin:

Starter-Home Sales Rose 4% in June, a Bright Spot in a Sluggish Housing Market

Sales of starter homes rose 3.9% year over year in June to the highest level in two years, a bright spot in an otherwise sluggish housing market where sales fell across other price tiers. 

This is according to a Redfin analysis where we divide U.S. homes into tiers based on the prices of homes sold over a rolling 12-month period. This report is focused on homes whose sale price fell into the 5th-35th percentile, which we define as starter homes. Our price-tier data is calculated in rolling three-month periods, with this report focusing on April-June. Data is subject to revision.

June was the 10th consecutive month in which home sales rose year over year, indicating that first-time homebuyers are jumping into the market.

In comparison, sales of mid-priced homes (35th-65th percentile of the market by sale price) fell 0.9% year over year in July, while high-price homes (65th-95th percentile) fell even more, down 3.6%.

Pending sales of starter homes are also rising, up 3.1% year over year in June, a sign that closed sales are likely to continue increasing in the coming months. 

In comparison, pending sales of mid- and high-price homes fell 0.7% and 2.7% year over year in June, respectively.

“In a market where it’s difficult for most Americans to afford a dream home, many are turning toward starter homes,” said Redfin Senior Economist Sheharyar Bokhari. “They’re typically smaller and more modest, but starter homes remain within reach for some buyers who have been priced out of higher tiers. First-time buyers are especially apt to go for starter homes, as they don’t have equity from a previous home sale to help with their payments.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Nobody left to build houses?

Posted on July 29, 2025 by grim

From CBS News:

Trump’s immigration crackdown causing labor shortages to California’s construction industry, builder says: “They’re hiding”

One construction site in Los Angeles has just about everything needed to build a traditional family home. Everything, that is, except enough workers. 

“We have probably three people on site, four people on site, and normally, we’d have about double, about eight to 10 people,” general contractor Jason Pietruszka told CBS News. “They’re hiding. People aren’t will to coming to work.” 

Pietruszka said he only hires builders here in the country legally, but that he also relies on companies that employ highly skilled, undocumented labor. Many of those workers are now no-shows because they are fearful of the ramped-up Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids. 

“If a company has five trucks going out and doing work every single day, and there’s two guys per truck, and half their crew doesn’t want to come, that’s literally three jobs, or two jobs, that can’t be performed,” Pietruszka explained. 

The labor shortage comes at a time when more than 12,000 homes destroyed by the devastating Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles County earlier this year need to be rebuilt.

About 41% of construction workers in California are foreign-born, according to a 2023 analysis from the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group for the housing construction industry. 

A report in March from the UCLA Anderson Forecast found that a rise in “deportations will deplete the construction workforce” statewide. 

“For single-family and smaller (non-high rise) multi-family development, the loss of workers installing drywall, flooring, roofing and finishing will directly diminish the level of production,” the report found.

Pietruszka said the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown is already causing longer construction delays and greater competition for fewer crews.

Posted in Demographics, Employment, National Real Estate, New Development | 83 Comments

Housing inventory increases

Posted on July 28, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. sees jump in new home listings. See full list. 

More homes hit New Jersey’s housing market last month compared to the same time last year, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com.

A total of 10,004 homes were listed statewide in June, making for an increase of over 6% compared to the same time last year.

Hawaii and New York saw the largest jumps in newly listed homes at over 27% and 19%, respectively. 

According to a Redfin report, nationwide new listings hit an almost three-year high in May. 

“My advice to homeowners: If you’re planning to sell in the next year or two, do it now because we don’t know what’s going to happen with home values or the larger economy,” Hazel Shakur, a Redfin agent based in Maryland, said in the report. “Buyers should know that because of the uncertainty in the air, they may be able to get a home for under asking price or get concessions from the seller.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 68 Comments

Ready for the epic market crash?

Posted on July 26, 2025 by grim

From Kiplinger:

No Capital Gains Tax on Home Sales Coming Soon? What You Need to Know

In recent years, more people across the United States are triggering capital gains taxes when they sell their primary homes. This is happening even though the federal government offers a tax break: a capital gains home sale exclusion of up to $250,000 in gains for individuals ($500,000 for married couples filing jointly).

Why? Those exclusion limits haven’t changed since 1997, despite soaring home values in many areas.

Now, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) has introduced the No Tax on Home Sales Act. The goal of the bill is to eliminate capital gains taxes on home sales of primary residences.

“Families who work hard, build equity, and sell their homes should not be punished with massive tax bills. The capital gains tax on home sales is an outdated, unfair burden — especially in today’s housing market, where values have skyrocketed. My bill fixes that.” Greene stated in a releaseregarding the proposal.

President Donald Trump has also weighed in.

During a press briefing, Trump told reporters he is “thinking about eliminating the tax on capital gains from houses,” when asked whether he was considering the proposal to stimulate the market.

But as you might expect, the bill is already sparking debate about who benefits and whether such a significant change could even pass Congress.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 100 Comments

Sales down, prices up, northeast slows

Posted on July 24, 2025 by grim

From the NAR:

Home Sales Drop in June to Their Lowest Level in 9 Months as Prices Hit New All-Time High

Sales of previously owned homes dropped in June, marking a slow start to summer for the housing market as affordability challenges continued to weigh on demand.

Existing-home sales fell 2.7% last month from May, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.39 million, the National Association of Realtors® reported on Wednesday.

The June figure was unchanged from a year earlier, and marked the first month since September 2024 that the annualized sales pace dipped below 4 million.

Home prices continued to climb, with the median existing-home sales price hitting $435,300 in June, up 2% from a year ago and reaching a new all-time high. June typically marks the seasonal peak for home prices each year, as families scramble to finalize purchases before the school year begins.

“Multiple years of undersupply are driving the record-high home price,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Home construction continues to lag population growth. This is holding back first-time home buyers from entering the market.”

On a regional basis, month-over-month sales declined in the Northeast, Midwest, and South and rose modestly in the West. Year over year, sales fell in the Northeast and West, while rising in the Midwest and South.

The total supply of existing homes for sale at the end of June was 1.53 million, down slightly from May, but up 15.9% from a year ago.

It represented 4.7 months of supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.6 months in May and the longest months-supply since 2016.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 137 Comments

Buyers walking..

Posted on July 23, 2025 by grim

From Redfin:

1 in 7 Pending Home Sales Fell Through Last Month, The Highest June Level on Record

Just over 57,000 home-sale agreements nationwide were canceled in June, equal to 14.9% of homes that went under contract that month. That’s up from 13.9% a year earlier and is the highest June share in records dating back to 2017.

This is based on a Redfin analysis of MLS pending-sales data. The data is seasonal; typically, there’s a higher share of cancellations at the end of the year and a lower share in the spring. That’s why we compare this June to past Junes. Please note: Homes that fell out of contract during a given month didn’t necessarily go under contract that same month. This data is subject to revision. 

Pending home sales are falling through at a higher rate than in the past largely because it’s a buyer’s market. There are hundreds of thousands more U.S. home sellers than buyers, giving buyers more options to choose from and more negotiating power. Buyers have room to be picky; they may back out during the inspection period if a better home comes up for sale or they discover an issue they don’t want to fix. 

Finances are the other major reason buyers are backing out of deals. U.S. home-sale prices are at record highs, and while monthly mortgage payments have fallen a bit, they’re still near their all-time high. Some would-be buyers are canceling purchases when the reality of their monthly payment sets in. Additionally, Redfin agents report that some buyers are canceling because they’re nervous about economic uncertainty surrounding things like tariffs, inflation, and the possibility of a recession. 

“Buyers have leverage,” said Crystal Zschirnt, a Redfin Premier agent in Dallas. “Some buyers are canceling deals because another home pops up in the same price range that they like better, or because they discover a flaw and get nervous it’ll cost too much to fix. I’ve also heard of some buyers backing out because they’re hoping home prices or mortgage rates are going to plummet soon, even though that’s unlikely.”
…
In Jacksonville, FL, more than one in five (21.4%) home-purchase agreements were canceled in June, the highest share of 44 major U.S. metros Redfin analyzed. It’s followed by Las Vegas (19.7%) and Atlanta (19.6%). 

The Sun Belt is home to all of the metros with the highest cancellation rates: San Antonio, Tampa, FL, Orlando, FL, Riverside, CA, Phoenix, Fort Worth, TX and Miami round out the top 10. Cancellations are especially common in Florida and Texas in part because there’s a lot of new construction, giving buyers even more inventory to choose from. Some buyers in those areas are backing out due to sky-high insurance quotes related to the increasing frequency of natural disasters. 

On the other end of the spectrum, just 5.4% of home-purchase agreements in Nassau County, NY were canceled in June, the lowest share of the metros Redfin analyzed. It’s followed by Montgomery County, PA (6.8%) and Milwaukee (8.2%). 

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 107 Comments

Some Jersey home prices to fall by end of summer?

Posted on July 22, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

Your N.J. home might be worth less by the end of summer. See full list. 

Most home values across the state will decrease by September, according to the latest housing forecast by Zillow.

An analysis of 547 ZIP codes in New Jersey with enough available data shows the vast majority of towns will experience a decline in home values by the end of summer.

The forecast includes three New Jersey towns with declines of over 2%. Pedricktown, a ZIP code in Salem County, is expected to see the largest dip at 2.3%.

Just 41 New Jersey towns are expected to see an increase in home values.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 112 Comments

“All I do is cough and choke…from the iron filings and the sulphur smoke…in Pittsburgh, Lord God, Pittsburgh”

Posted on July 19, 2025 by grim

From CBS News:

Pittsburgh is the only U.S. city where it’s cheaper to buy a home than rent, report says

Pittsburgh is the only city where it’s cheaper to buy a home than rent, according to a new report. 

Realtor.com says renting is more affordable than buying in 49 of the 50 largest U.S. cities, except for Pittsburgh. 

According to realtor.com’s June rental report, leasing a median home in Pittsburgh cost $1,473 last month, which is well below the national median asking rent of $1,711. 

Meanwhile, purchasing a starter home in the Steel City costs $1,362 a month. Economists said they got that figure by assuming a 9% down payment with a 30-year fixed mortgage, before tacking on HOA fees, taxes and homeowners insurance. 
…
“Pittsburgh remains one of the most affordable places in the U.S. to live and to buy a home,” realtor.com senior economic research analyst Hannah Jones said on the website. “It’s the only major market where buying a home is cheaper than renting, and one of just three large metros where a median-income household can afford a median-priced home.”

Realtor.com says since 2019, home prices in Pittsburgh have gone up about 31% while rents have jumped about 40%, pushing the cost of renting beyond the cost of buying. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 120 Comments

Bye Bye New Buyers

Posted on July 18, 2025 by grim

From Markets Insider:

The number of first-time homebuyers is plummeting. Why that’s bad news for the US economy.

Economists are always watching the housing market as a barometer for the health of the broader economy, and some see trouble ahead if first-time buyers can’t start climbing the real estate ladder.

The brutal US housing market has been particularly tough for younger people who typically make up a large portion of first-time buyers. Prices soared during the pandemic, and never came back down in most parts of the country. Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are the highest they’ve been in over 20 years.

A chart from Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management, showed in June that the number of first-time home buyers has fallen from 50% in 2010 to just 24% in 2024.
…
The housing market is often seen as a bellwether for the economy. When it’s struggling, it can create ripple effects that negatively impact other areas.

“First-time buyers usually kick off the whole chain, and without them, it’s harder for current homeowners to move up or down,” Taylor Kovar, CEO of 11 Financial, told BI. 

“That means fewer listings, slower construction, and less money moving through industries tied to homeownership like appliances, insurance, remodeling—you name it.”

These factors could impact the broader economy in the near-term. As Kovac noted, “Housing has always been a major engine in the economy, so when a whole generation steps back, that’s going to create some drag.”

Posted in Crisis, Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 91 Comments

Flying off the shelf

Posted on July 17, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J. real estate 2025: Homes selling faster than most states

New Jersey homes sold in over a month, according to the latest Realtor.com data.

At a median of 37 days, New Jersey tied with Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and Michigan for fourth fastest-selling homes in the nation.

Rhode Island had the fastest selling homes in the nation, followed by Massachusetts and Connecticut, both tied for second place, followed by Maryland. 

Florida, Hawaii and Louisiana had the slowest-selling homes nationwide.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 106 Comments

Mortgage rates aren’t going down anytime soon

Posted on July 16, 2025 by grim

From the AP:

The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge

Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of everything from groceries and clothes to furniture and appliances. 

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.

Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who as a candidate promised to immediately lower costs, but instead has engaged in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have jolted businesses and consumers. Trump insists that the U.S. effectively has no inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates. 

Yet the new inflation numbers make it more likely that the central bank will leave rates where they are. Powell has said that he wants to gauge the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs before reducing borrowing costs. 

Excluding volatile food and energy, core inflation increased 2.9% in June from a year earlier, up from 2.8% in May. On a monthly basis, it picked up 0.2% from May to June. Economists closely watch core prices because they typically provide a better sense of where inflation is headed.

The uptick in inflation was driven by a range of higher prices. The cost of gasoline rose 1% just from May to June, while grocery prices increased 0.3%. Appliance prices jumped for the third straight month. Toys, clothes, audio equipment, shoes, and sporting goods all got more expensive, and are all heavily imported.

“You are starting to see scattered bits of the tariff inflation regime filter in,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at asset management firm AllianceBernstein, who added that the cost of long-lasting goods rose last month, compared with a year ago, for the first time in about three years.

Posted in Economics, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 96 Comments

Zandi warns on housing

Posted on July 15, 2025 by grim

From Forexlive:

Moody’s chief economist warns of deepening housing market slump as 7% mortgage rates bite

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi has escalated his warning on the U.S. housing market, shifting from a “yellow flare” to a “red flare” as conditions continue to deteriorate under the weight of high mortgage rates.

In a series of posts on social media platform Twitter, Zandi outlined how persistently elevated mortgage rates—hovering near 7%—are exerting significant pressure on housing demand, homebuilding activity, and price growth. He warns that without a meaningful drop in rates soon, the market is heading for a broader slump.

  • “Home sales, homebuilding, and even house prices are set to slump unless mortgage rates decline materially from their current near 7% soon,” Zandi wrote. “That, however, seems unlikely.”

Zandi noted that while overall home sales are already sharply depressed, homebuilders had been using mortgage rate buydowns to keep new home sales afloat. But with buydown costs becoming unsustainable, many builders are now backing away. A clear sign of their caution: delays in land purchases from land banks—a precursor to future construction activity. As a result, Zandi expects new home sales, housing starts, and completions to drop in the coming months.

Adding to the gloom, Zandi said that the resilience in house prices is also fading. 

  • “House price growth had held up well. But this, too, is changing,” he said, noting that prices have flattened and are likely to decline. Rising supply, coupled with affordability challenges and demographic shifts, is weakening the market’s foundations.
  • “Locked-in homeowners must move,” he added, referring to owners who secured low-rate mortgages during the pandemic
  • “They can only work around these needs for so long.”

Zandi concluded with a broader warning: the housing sector, once a stabilizer in the post-COVID recovery, is now turning into a “full-blown headwind” for the U.S. economy. It joins a growing list of concerns for the outlook into late 2025 and early 2026, raising fresh questions about the trajectory of growth and the Federal Reserve’s path forward.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 64 Comments

Shut up and pay up

Posted on July 13, 2025 by grim

From Fox Business:

New Jersey tops nation’s highest property tax list at $9,413 while southern states offer relief

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 89 Comments

Or will it just tumble down?

Posted on July 11, 2025 by grim

From ROINJ:

N.J. to have nation’s 5th-largest homeownership affordability gap by 2030

You don’t have to tell prospective homeowners how difficult it is to buy a house in New Jersey in 2025. The bad news is it’s going to get even harder by 2030, according to HireAHelper, an online marketplace where consumers can find, compare and book local moving companies. 

New Jersey is predicted to have the ninth-most expensive median house price in the country by 2030 of $844,849. Garden State residents will need the second-highest household income to afford it, according to HireAHelper. With annual property costs, including mortgage and taxes, expected to top $70,104, households will need to earn $210,313, a 94.61% jump from current income levels to keep up affordability. That’s predicted to be the fifth-largest homeownership gap in the nation.

New Jersey is joined by eastern states New York, Rhode Island, and New Hampshire in the top 10 states with yawning affordability gaps. The rest of the top 10 are western states California, Montana, Idaho, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

By 2030, home prices are projected to outpace income growth in all 50 states, with a national median of $615,103. Eight out of 50 states will have to see their household income double in five years to make predicted house prices affordable.

Posted in Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 89 Comments

Cool or crazy?

Posted on July 9, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Is North Jersey’s rental market finally cooling down? How hot the market is so far in 2025

There’s no doubt about it: Finding an apartment, especially an affordable one, in North Jersey is a difficult feat. But believe it or not, it’s a feat that has eased up — if only slightly — during 2025.

In RentCafe’s recent Hottest Rental Markets report, it ranked the top 20 U.S. rental markets based on how competitive they were during the first quarter of 2025.

North Jersey, which has consistently been named among the nation’s top markets, didn’t rank in the report’s top five. In fact, for the first time in at least two years, it didn’t even make the report’s top 10.

Instead, North Jersey — with Bergen, Passaic, Morris, Essex, Sussex, Hudson and Union counties included in the report — was named as the nation’s 11th-most-competitive rental market during this time. That is compared with this time last year, when our region ranked third overall.

“Interestingly, North Jersey’s rental market has softened, as shown by a sharp year-over-year drop in its RCI score,” the report says.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 108 Comments