Not a bargain…

Posted on October 15, 2026 by grim

From Briefs Finance:

The Jersey Suburb Discount Is Fading Fast

For years, the move was obvious: keep the New York City paycheck and hop over to New Jersey to lower your bills. That math is getting messy. The Living Wage Institute says the annual budget needed for two working adults and two kids in New Jersey is up about $40,800 between 2021 and 2026, a 6.7% yearly increase.

The institute – organized as a nonpartisan public benefit corporation that monitors expenses such as housing, child care, food, transportation, and healthcare – reports that every New Jersey county is beating the 4.5% national median growth. And looking at U.S. counties that each have 100,000 or more residents, the places with the fastest-rising family budgets since 2021 include 20 such counties, eight of which are in New Jersey’s suburbs.

Home prices that took off during the pandemic lit the fuse. While statewide price gains have cooled, towns with quick train rides to Midtown kept climbing as more employers called people back. That has tightened the gap between city and suburb. Over the past five years, family expenses in Manhattan rose 4.6% a year, and many New Jersey suburbs are now accelerating past that.

Since 2023, increases in child care and healthcare costs in New Jersey have more than tripled, which has pushed family budgets higher. In Hudson County, child care averages $37,242 a year, about $5,200 more than in New York City. NYC’s free pre-K and 3-K programs, open to all income levels, help blunt the hit, and the city is adding a 2-K program.

“Places that were more affordable have started to see their costs increase,” Misael Galdámez, a researcher at the Living Wage Institute, said. He also points to more people moving in. New Jersey’s population has been edging up since 2023; nearly 57,000 moved from New York State during 2023 to 2024, per Census data that USA Facts compiled.

“For many young families living in New Jersey today, child care is their biggest expense,” sometimes topping the mortgage or rent, said Sharon Levine, who leads the campaign for Start Strong NJ, a child care advocacy organization. The advocacy group is pressing the state to expand tuition-assistance eligibility to additional working parents and students.
…
Or as real estate economist Jeffrey Otteau puts it: it used to be that families could put down roots anywhere in New Jersey and make the numbers work. Today, for households earning $150,000 or less, it is not the affordability refuge it once was. If you are weighing a move or child care changes, the takeaway is simple: map your actual line items.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 63 Comments

NJ home sales falling through

Posted on October 14, 2026 by grim

From Patch:

NJ Housing Market Sees A Surprising Shift In Buyer Behavior

Homebuyers in new Jersey are walking away from home purchase agreements as the U.S. housing market struggles with rising mortgage rates, high home prices and weakening demand, according to a new report from real estate brokerage Redfin. 

In the New Brunswick metro area, 12 percent of homebuying contracts were canceled in September, compared with 14.5 percent nationally, according toRedfin’s housing market report released Monday. 

Nationwide, canceled deals are part of a broader housing slowdown. Pending home sales fell about 4 percent from August to September, and the number of houses on the market is higher than at any point since the pandemic. 

The high housing inventory gives buyers an advantage, but with mortgage rates that have inched to 7.28 percent, the highest level in three years, “fewer people buy because fewer people can afford them,” Chen Zhao, Redfin’s head of economic research, said in the report.

In the Newark metro area, pending home sales fell 11.7 percent in September compared with a year earlier, according to Redfin. 

Nationally, annual home price growth slowed to just 1.3 percent, and about three in five homes sold for less than their original asking price. Nearly one in five sellers with active listings cut their asking prices, with price reductions becoming more common in 43 of the 50 largest metropolitan areas. 

The median home sale price in New Brunswick was $583,660, an increase of 1.5 percent from September 2025. 

Similarly in the Newark metro area, the median home sale price is $613,591, an increase of 4 percent from last year. 

The number of homes available for sale fell by 7.5 percent from a year earlier in New Brunswick, while closed home sales decreased by 4.5 percent. 

That’s a two-sided coin, according to Zhao. 

“For buyers, less competition means more room to negotiate: on price, on closing costs, on repairs, and sometimes sellers even pay for a mortgage-rate buydown,” she said. “Slow sales also mean prices may flatten or fall in the not-so-distant future.” 

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, New Jersey Real Estate | 91 Comments

Buyers give up

Posted on October 13, 2026 by grim

From Redfin:

U.S. Pending Home Sales Sink Near 12-Year Low

U.S. pending home sales are down to their lowest level since spring 2014–with the exception of April 2020, when the onset of the pandemic ground the housing market to a halt. 

Pending home sales declined 4% from a month earlier in September on a seasonally adjusted basis–the biggest monthly drop in more than three years. This is a real-time indicator of what’s happening in the housing market; fewer homes went under contract in September largely because mortgage rates rose steadily, surpassing 7% by the end of the month.

All figures in this report are seasonally adjusted, with the exception of median sale price data and mortgage rate data. See a more detailed methodology here and view an interactive dashboard here.

For the first time in three years, pending home sales declined in all 50 of the most populous U.S. metros. The last time that happened was September 2023, which was also the last time mortgage rates surpassed 7% for a sustained period. 

The declines were biggest on the West Coast: Seattle posted the biggest drop (-24.4% year over year), followed by Los Angeles (-16%), San Diego (-15.8%) and Anaheim, CA (-15.5%).  Those Southern California metros are among the priciest in the U.S., so rising mortgage rates hit them hard, pricing many on-the-fence buyers out. Seattle is also expensive, and a bumpy local job market is curbing demand. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 52 Comments

Meredith says….

Posted on October 12, 2026 by grim

From Business Insider:

The ‘Oracle of Wall Street’ says prepare for a prolonged housing slowdown as rates and home prices refuse to budge

One of the forecasters renowned for calling the last housing crash has some bad news for buyers: the market isn’t going to get more affordable anytime soon.

Meredith Whitney, the “Oracle of Wall Street” who was among the analysts that rose to fame in “The Big Short,” says she isn’t expecting the yearslong US housing slowdown to pick up anytime soon. While home sales have dropped sharply in recent years, that won’t be enough to lower mortgage rates or home prices — meaning the deep freeze in housing activity could stretch on for at least the next year without improvement, she told Business Insider in an interview this week.

2026 is on track to be the weakest year for home sales since 2011, according to one estimate from Capital Economics. Whitney said she expected 2027 to be at least “just as bad” as 2026 for home sales.

“I don’t see it improving dramatically anytime soon,” she said, adding that a 2008-style correction in home prices was “absolutely” out of the question despite the slowdown in sales and waning demand from buyers.

“To see home prices coming down dramatically, you’d have to see more supply than demand, and that dynamic just doesn’t exist,” she added.

The housing market has been trapped in a years-long sales slump, with buyers pulling out of the market as home prices have soared in. Mortgage rates have also surged, making homeowners hesitant to sell and finance a new purchase at higher rates.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index has appreciated 59% since the start of 2020.

Meanwhile, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate broke through 7% for the first time in years in September, and is hovering above 7.5% in the last week.

The hope for some prospective buyers is that sales will eventually slow to a point that causes prices to fall. But the conditions to create that dynamic don’t exist, Whitney said, pointing to factors that should keep prices elevated for the foreseeable future.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 67 Comments

We’re Hollywood Now

Posted on October 11, 2026 by grim

From the Realtors:

This NJ Town Had Plans for a 200+ Apartment Complex on an Abandoned Mini Mall. Now It’s a Movie Set.

New stores opening up?”

That was the excited question of one Wayne, NJ, resident on Facebook after photos surfaced on a community corner page showing construction taking place at a local strip mall.

The town’s Preakness Shopping Center used to be host of several businesses adored by residents: a Macy’s, a small movie theater, and beloved family-run diner.  

Sadly, in the years leading up to COVID-19, a majority of the retailers moved out without being replaced, with the Macy’s functioning as a vaccination center during the pandemic and a Spirit Halloween moving in seasonally to fill in the glaring gaps in the storefronts.

But to the surprise and delight of residents, a stretch of the mall was refreshed and reformed almost overnight on Oct. 1, bringing new life to a space that’s been sitting in limbo for years.

And while the construction didn’t turn out to be the 200 or so apartments that’s been the talk of the town for years, for some, the replacement was even better:

A movie set. 

Turns out, a production crew is preparing to shoot “Miami Vice ’85” in Wayne in the coming weeks.

The Universal film will feature Austin Butler and Michael B. Jordan in the leading roles of the fan-favorite NBC series being brought to the big screen. Production is already in progress, with the film’s set release date of May 19, 2028.

Residents of Wayne, which was voted one of the hottest ZIP codes in 2025,  saw crews bring in tall, fake palm trees into the lot, as well as several abandoned shopfronts completely converted into set pieces straight out of a Hollywood backlot. 

Now, there’s façades for a handful of time-centric stores, like a men’s clothing boutique and a VCR repair shop, sitting alongside a modern-day—and operational—CVS.

And that’s not all. Just a few days later, another movie was spotted filming in town. Sydney Sweeney was photographed filming her new movie, “The Housemaid’s Secret,” at William Paterson University in Wayne on Oct. 6. The film is a sequel to Paul Feig’s “The Housemaid” and will find Brittany Snow and Kirsten Dunst as Sweeney’s co-stars.

And this is likely just the beginning of big movies coming to town—not just for Wayne, but the state as a whole. 

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 50 Comments

7.40!

Posted on October 9, 2026 by grim

From Reuters:

US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate hits 7.40%, likely to further erode housing demand

The average rate on the popular US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage surged to a near three-year high this week, and could increase further as concerns over inflation boost Treasury yields.

The 30-year fixed ‌mortgage rate averaged 7.40%, the highest level since November 2023, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. That was up from 7.28% last week.

The US-Israeli war with Iran is fanning inflation through higher energy prices, driving up longer-term Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which mortgage rates track, has risen to ⁠a 24-year high.

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The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has soared 142 basis points since the war started at the end of February.

Rising mortgage rates and still-high home prices have put the housing market at the center of what economists call an affordability crisis heading into the November 3 midterm elections, which will determine control of Congress.

President Donald Trump earlier this year refused to sign a bipartisan housing affordability bill, calling it “a big yawn” as he pressed Congress, including fellow Republicans resisting his demands, to first pass ‌separate ⁠and contentious voting requirements.

The bill, which among other main provisions, waives or speeds up environmental reviews for home construction projects and places a cap on the number of already constructed single-family homes that big Wall Street investors can own, became law without Trump’s signature in July.

Higher ⁠mortgage rates are not only suppressing demand, but they have also left potential sellers reluctant to put their houses on the market. Most homeowners have mortgage contracts below 5%. That has contributed ⁠to a national housing shortage, especially of starter homes, keeping prices elevated even as demand has weakened.

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate, Risky Lending | 95 Comments

Inventory up, price gains slow

Posted on October 8, 2026 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Home prices rose and fell in these North Jersey counties in September

In New Jersey, there were 21,036 active listings in September, up 17.5% from the previous year and 3.24% from August 2026. And of those active listings, 9,414 were newly listed in September, Realtor.com market datashowed.

The state had a median listing price of $559,500, up 0.43% year-over-year and down 0.97% month-over-month. There were 5,458 price reductions in September — 17.63% more than the previous year and 4.8% more than in August 2026 — and listings stayed on the market for 45 days, Realtor.com said.

Twenty of New Jersey’s 21 counties had an increase in active listings compared with September 2025, and 19 counties had an increase in active listings compared with the previous month, August 2026.

Of New Jersey’s 21 counties, 13 had an increase in median listing prices in September compared with the same time last year. But 14 New Jersey counties had a decrease in median listing prices compared with the month before.

In North Jersey, the counties of Passaic, Morris and Sussex saw an increase in median listing prices compared with last year, while Bergen, Essex and Hudson saw a decrease in median listings prices compared with last month.

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 76 Comments

Not Here!

Posted on October 7, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

Buyers continue pulling back as home prices rise, according to Cotality; N.J. among highest gains

Cotality, a leader in property information, analytics, and data‑enabled solutions, released its Home Price Index on Oct. 6 with August 2026 data.

National single-family home price growth reaccelerated in August, rising 1.8% year-over-year compared with 1.6% in July. New Jersey had among the highest increases in August.

Mortgage rates, now at their highest level in almost 2.5 years, have played a major role in home sales. The average rate for 30-year, fixed-rate home loans climbed to 7.38% last week, according to Bankrate‘s national survey of lenders. That’s up from 7.08% the previous week, and it’s the highest level since May 2024.

After the jump in mortgage rates in August, Cotality has seen the housing market continue to slow, with buyer pullback evident in September’s pending home sales. The trend is reflected in the HPI forecast, which predicts month-over-month price declines through the winter and lower annual gains. Overall, annual appreciation for 2026 is expected to reach 1.3%.

Beneath this headline figure, however, the real estate landscape remains deeply divided because of persistent rate-lock constraints, shifting migration patterns and localized inventory imbalances.

“Looking ahead to 2027, mortgage rates will be the primary driver of home price trends and sales activity,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality. “Many buyers halt their searches when rates exceed 7%, but as expectations shift from lower rates in 2027 to ‘higher for longer,’ some may opt to buy rather than keep waiting. Although elevated rates and ongoing affordability challenges will favor markets with lower entry prices and strong local job growth over former high-growth pandemic hotspots.”

Posted in National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 61 Comments

Build More! Everywhere!

Posted on October 6, 2026 by grim

From JerseyDigs:

New Jersey Says It Needs to Build Up to 41,000 Homes a Year

An ambitious plan to address New Jersey’s housing shortage, released Tuesday by Gov. Mikie Sherrill, forecasts the need for a pace of residential construction not seen in 50 years.

The governor’s Housing Governing Council reported that an annual average of 35,000 to 41,000 housing units would be needed over the next 10 years to close the gap.

Only in the boom years of 1970 to 1980 did housing unit growth come close – with the state adding an average of 38,000 housing units a year, according to decennial census statistics. The annual average from 2010 to 2020 was 21,000 new housing units a year.

The 41-page plan, “Housing Strategy & Progress Report,” was ordered by Sherrill shortly after becoming governor this year.

“I continue to hear the same concerns: people are struggling to keep up with rising housing costs,” Sherrill said in the report’s introduction. “Young people wonder whether they can afford to stay in the state they love. Parents like me worry that our children will have to move away. Seniors fear they will be priced out of the communities they helped build.”

The report notes: “Too many families, especially families of color, remain locked out of homeownership or struggle to find affordable rentals.”

A key component of the plan is to open state land for residential development and add between 37,200 and 42,800 housing units.

The report advocates using 800 acres of New Jersey Transit property and an additional 2,300 acres of state property that may be suitable for housing development.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 114 Comments

Tear it down

Posted on October 5, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Jersey Shore house being sold for $4M comes with an option: move in, or tear it down

A home in the North Beach section of Long Beach Island is listed for $3.899 million — and it’s being marketed as a tear-down.

Built in 1988, the five-bedroom, three-bathroom, 2,756-square-foot contemporary sits on a 100 by 100 foot lot.

“When you’re talking about LBI, most properties are 50 by 100 feet,” said Bonnie Wells of Coastal Living Real Estate Group, the listing agent. 

With the larger lot size, someone could build a 4,000 to 5,000 square foot home, which is better suited for today’s multi-generational families that want more space. “With a 5,000 square foot home you can get that eighth bedroom, the home theater, the gym,” she said. “That makes it a resort style house.”

The home is being marketed as it currently exists for $3.899 million. Or for $5,999,000 with a new construction, six bedroom, five-full and one-half-bathroom home by D. Finelli Construction, which includes a pool and a lanai.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Shore Real Estate | 81 Comments

Doesn’t seem too outrageous. Am I just numb?

Posted on October 3, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Tiny Jersey Shore house sells above asking price after 12 offers

A tiny cottage in Ocean Grove just closed for what is likely to be a record price.

The 340-square-foot studio-style cottage was listed for $399,000. It got 12 offers and closed for $465,000 or $1,368 per square foot. The typical home in Ocean Grove sells for about $700 to $900 per square foot.

“To me that was the thing that was like ‘oh. my gosh.’ That really said it to me more than the price it sold for,” said Thea Bowers of Re/Max Gateway, the listing agent. “That’s the most I’ve ever seen something sell for and I’ve been doing this for 20 years.”

The cottage was listed on August 20. More than 150 people showed up for two open houses the first weekend it was on the market. 

Bowers said she was initially surprised by the response — until she heard everyone who came through the open house talking about it. It was known as the cute house by the beach, and people said they had been walking by and admiring it for years. “It seems it had a following and I didn’t even realize it,” she said.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 92 Comments

Seven and a half percent

Posted on October 2, 2026 by grim

From NBC:

Mortgage rates hit highest point since 2023 as Treasury yields rise

Mortgage rates are at their highest point in nearly three years as turmoil in the bond market continues.

U.S. Treasury bonds continued selling off Thursday, driving yields on the most closely watched bonds to their highest levels since 2002.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose as high as 5.34%. Over the three months that ended Wednesday, the 10-year yield had its largest quarterly surge since 1994. The 30-year yield spiked to as high as 5.69%. 

As bonds sell off, their yields rise.

The surge in the 10-year yield is driving U.S. mortgage interest rates higher, too. Late Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.54%. While that was down slightly from Wednesday, it was still near its highest point since late 2023.

Yields are spiking for a number of reasons; a major driver is inflation stemming from rising energy prices as a result of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. 

On Thursday, the average regular gas price in the U.S. remained 47% higher than it was in late February when the Iran war began. At the same time, diesel prices have soared 70% over the same period. 

While diesel is not often used by consumers, it is used widely in the shipping and farming sectors, meaning higher fuel costs can easily trickle down to store shelves.

Last week, S&P Global reported that “price pressures intensified in September” for businesses at the fastest rate in four years.

On Thursday, another report echoed similar concerns. The Institute of Supply Management released its September report on U.S. manufacturing. While it said the industry remained steady, it also flagged “a notable increase” in costs.

Posted in Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate, Unrest | 83 Comments

We’re not Florida

Posted on October 1, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Once America’s hottest housing market, popular state is now the hardest place to sell a home 

If you’re planning to cash out in Florida, you might want to pack your patience. 

The Sunshine State is the single worst place in the country to sell a home right now, according to a fresh ranking from Underwood Law Firm that pits 48 states against each other on how brutal their markets are for sellers.

Florida sits at the bottom of the barrel with a staggering 206,508 homes up for grabs, the biggest glut of any state studied. 

The typical property there lingers for 73 days before a buyer bites, and bidding wars have all but vanished. Only 10.9% of homes fetched more than their asking price.

This essentially means buyers in Florida are calling the shots.

The firm crunched Redfin Data Center figures across seven yardsticks. 

Those include median sale price, total homes sold, median days on market, annual price swings, active inventory, the share of homes selling over asking and the share of listings that had to slash their price.

Each factor carried a different weight depending on how much it matters to sellers. The scores were then blended into a single difficulty rating, and states were lined up from most punishing to most forgiving.

Texas grabbed the No. 2 slot. The Lone Star State has 180,524 homes on the market and a median wait of 68 days. Nearly a quarter of sellers there, about 23%, were forced to cut their price, putting Texas near the top of the study for markdowns.

South Carolina landed at No. 3. Homes in the Palmetto State sit for a median of 74 days, and 22.1% of listings took a price chop. A mere 13% sold above asking.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 72 Comments

Build build build

Posted on September 30, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s plan to build thousands of homes on state land goes through a massive change

Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced Tuesday that her administration will build 20,000 additional housing units on state-owned land in New Jersey, doubling an existing plan. 

Last year, New Jersey Transit launched the Land Plan, which will deliver up to 20,000 new homes on its properties. Sherrill said her administration has since identified enough additional state land to build another 20,000 homes.

It found 15 new sites between Atlantic City and Jersey City that could bring the total number of homes built to 37,200 to 42,800 homes, according to a Housing Strategy and Progress Report released Tuesday.

“I knew we could go even bigger,” she said as the keynote speaker during the event’s luncheon in Atlantic City. 

The Housing Strategy and Progress Report is the work of the Housing Governing Council created by Executive Order No. 17 in April. It aims to accelerate housing production and bring down costs. 

The report found that New Jersey must build 350,500 to 406,500 more homes over the next 10 years to have enough homes for new families and keep pace with the state’s economic growth.

Shovels are already in the ground for projects on transit properties in Woodbridge and Hoboken, Sherrill said. 

“New Jersey should build in places people want to live, on land that’s already developed but under utilized,” the Democrat said. “Think empty strip malls, parking decks. Our strategy is to deliver new investment to cities like Trenton and Atlantic City.

Posted in Demographics, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 80 Comments

Tunneling begins!

Posted on September 29, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Massive machine starts carving first new tunnel under the Hudson River in 116 years

The moment that some officials and commuters never thought would come happened Monday morning when two governors turned on a 500-foot-long machine to begin drilling the Gateway rail tunnel at the base of the Palisades in North Bergen.

Gov. Mikie Sherrill and Gov. Kathy Hochul flipped a ceremonial switch from the podium and the massive green cutter head on the first of two gigantic tunnel boring machines began slowly spinning. 

Public officials expressed relief that it finally started and determination to finish the job, despite an ongoing court challenge by the Trump Administration to stop Gateway funding.

“I’ve dreamed about this day for a long time,” said Sherrill as she named members of congress, state and agency officials from both sides of the Hudson who got Gateway this far. “It’s hard to take it all in because this has been such a fight.”
…
The Gateway project eliminates a long standing bottleneck for commuters and long distance rail travelers on Amtraks’ Northeast Corridor line, the nation’s busiest passenger route.

The rail line and tunnel serves a region responsible for 20% of the nation’s gross domestic product.

“Generations not yet born will benefit from this work,” said U.S. Senator Cory Booker, D-NJ, who’s remarks drew an impromptu chant of U-S-A from construction workers. “Today we are redeeming the dream of America, making this nation show the world America is still strong and we still do great things.” 

Both governors paid tribute to the army of 10,000 union construction workers who have and will continue to labor in all types of weather to build the tunnel.

Two of the 500-feet tunnel boring machines stood side by side in the trench under Routes 1&9, with one poised to begin actual drilling “in a couple of days” after testing, Gateway officials said. 

Because of the hardness of the rock in the Palisades, the boring machines will progress 30 feet a day and take one year to complete drilling two tunnels under them, said James Starace, GDC Chief of Program Delivery. 

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC | 75 Comments