Jersey gets risky

Posted on June 13, 2025 by grim

From ATTOM:

CALIFORNIA AND NEW JERSEY LOCALES TOP COUNTIES FACING GREATEST HOUSING MARKET HEADWINDS

ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property data, and real estate analytics, today released its latest Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, equity and other measures in the first quarter of 2025. The report shows that California and New Jersey had high concentrations of counties considered most at-risk.

The data shows that 23 of the 50 most at-risk markets were in California (14) and New Jersey (9). Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates.

In a sign of the robust post-pandemic housing market, the number of foreclosures and proportion of homes with seriously underwater mortgages—meaning the combined estimated balance of loans secured by the property was at least 25 percent more than the property’s estimated market value—remained low throughout much of the country during the first quarter of the year. But that stability, combined with several years of aggressive buying, has contributed to escalating prices that make it increasingly hard to purchase a new home in some markets.

In 109 of the counties ATTOM analyzed, a typical resident would have to spend more than half of their annual income to cover the down payment, mortgage, and other initial expenses for a median-priced home.

“This report highlights a number of market forces that anyone with an interest in their local housing market should keep an eye on,” said Rob Barber, CEO at ATTOM. “Affordability is an obvious concern, but as the data shows, there’s a complex interplay between price, wages, mortgage health, and foreclosure rates that can give even greater insight into where property values are likely to go in the future.”

“There’s no unequivocal metric that can tell you where it’s safe to buy and where it’s risky,” he added. “But taken together these data points show how different parts of the country are performing.”
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The three most at-risk counties in ATTOM’s analysis—Butte, Humboldt, and Shasta counties—cover regions of Northern California that, in addition to contending with challenging market forces, have been ravaged by wildfires in recent years. Rounding out the top five most at-risk counties were New Jersey’s Atlantic and Cumberland counties along the state’s southern coast.

In previous years, counties surrounding New York City, NY have scored among the riskiest in the nation. But that wasn’t the case in the first quarter of 2025. No New York counties landed among the 50 riskiest markets, and although nine New Jersey counties did, they were largely in the central and southern part of the state.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 124 Comments

More homes for sale?

Posted on June 11, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

N.J.’s housing market heats up: Over 9,000 homes listed 

Thousands of homes hit New Jersey’s housing market last month, according to the latest figures from Realtor.com.

A total of 9,844 homes were listed statewide in April, making for a nearly 5% increase compared to the same time last year.

Most of the nation saw the percentage of newly listed homes increase.

Vermont and Massachusetts saw the largest increase in newly listed homes at over 25% and 21%, respectively.

North Dakota, which had 916 newly listed homes in April, saw the most significant dip at 18.65%.

According to a recent Redfin report, nationwide housing stock hit a five-year high.

“A lot of people are selling their homes and downsizing,” Meme Loggins, a Redfin agent based in Portland, Oregon, said in the report. “They’re worried about the economy.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 184 Comments

Renting Jersey

Posted on June 9, 2025 by grim

From NY Post:

Dozens of New Jersey suburbs have more renters than homeowners — more than any other state

In the Garden State, signing a deed to buy a home is being outnumbered in certain areas by inking a lease to rent one. 

As housing affordability continues to decline nationwide, a growing number of New Jersey suburbs especially are now dominated by renters — recasting the classic vision of suburban life.

A new analysis of US Census data by Point2Homes reveals that 39 New Jersey suburbs with populations more than 10,000 are now renter-majority — a figure that leads the nation. 

Once a haven for aspiring homeowners who wanted to maintain close ties to New York City, the state’s inner-ring suburbs are seeing significant demographic and economic transformation as more residents lease rather than buy.

Places like Harrison, Union City, West New York, Passaic and Elizabeth are among the top 20 suburbs in the country with the highest shares of renter households. 

In Harrison, located near Newark, over 81% of households are occupied by renters; in Union City, it’s nearly 80%. The trend isn’t just about where people are living — it’s about how.

The shift reflects both an affordability crisis and changing attitudes about homeownership, according to the National Association of Home Builders, which noted that nearly 75% of US households cannot afford a median-priced new home in 2025 — now hovering around $460,000 with a 30-year mortgage rate at 6.5%.

In New Jersey, the shift is particularly stark. 

Of the 15 suburbs nationwide that flipped from homeowner-majority to renter-majority between 2018 and 2023, four are in New Jersey — more than any other state. 

Bound Brook, for example, saw its renter population jump from just under 50% to more than 58%. 

North Arlington, East Franklin and Secaucus also made the list, each undergoing a similar transformation.

Meanwhile, Elizabeth and Paterson added more than 3,500 renter households each over the past five years, ranking among the top 10 suburbs nationwide for absolute growth in renter households.

The movement isn’t just driven by rising home prices — it’s also a response to skyrocketing urban rents, especially considering nearby New York. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 271 Comments

Jersey Market Slows

Posted on June 8, 2025 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

With nearly 25% more home listings in May, housing inventory in NJ continues to rise

If it feels like you’ve been noticing more for sale signs popping up, it’s not all in your head: Housing inventory across the nation has consistently been increasing across the country, including right here in New Jersey.

With more than 1.5 million homes for sale — 31.5% more than the year prior — May marked the 19th consecutive month of inventory growth across the nation, according to Realtor.com’s Monthly Housing Market Trends Report. Inventory is at its highest post-pandemic level to date, and this marks the first time the number of homes for sale has topped one million since the winter of 2019.

“Still, inventory remains 14.4% below typical 2017-2019 levels, though May’s gains indicate the market is closing the gap at an accelerating pace,” Realtor.com said.
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In New Jersey, there were a total of 16,379 active home listings. This was 24.11% more than last year and 15.69% more than April 2025, according to Realtor.com’s monthly market data.

The Garden State also had a median listing price of $575,000 — a 0.86% decrease from last year and a 1.05% increase from April 2025 — and active listings stayed on the market for about 33 days.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 39 Comments

Jobs Day

Posted on June 6, 2025 by grim

From CNBC:

Friday’s jobs report likely will show hiring cooled in May. Here’s what to expect

There seems little doubt now that hiring slowed considerably in May as companies and consumers braced for higher tariffs and elevated economic uncertainty. The main question is by how much.

A small dip from the recent trend likely wouldn’t be viewed as worrisome. But anything beyond that could set off a fresh round of fears about the labor market and broader economy, possibly pushing the Federal Reserve into a quicker-than-expected interest rate action.

Economists expect that when the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the May nonfarm payroll numbers Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, they will show a gain of just 125,000, down from an initial tally of 177,000 in April and the year-to-date monthly average of 144,000. That represents a slide but not a collapse, and markets will hinge on the degree of decline.

“Going into the NFP print, expectations have been reset lower and a reading of around 100,000 (vs. the 125,000 expected by the consensus) could fall in the ‘not-as-bad-as-feared’” camp, wrote Julien Lefargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. “Anything below the 100,000 mark could reignite recession fears, while a stronger-than-expected print could perversely be negative for risk assets as it would likely put upward pressure on [Treasury] yields.”

Consequently, the report will be a balancing act between competing concerns of a slowing labor market and rising inflation.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment | 111 Comments

Post Pandemic Hangover

Posted on June 5, 2025 by grim

From Newsweek:

Denver Faces Pileup of Unsold Homes

There are more homes for sale in Denver now than there were before the pandemic, in 2019, as hundreds of listings are piling up in the market amid buyers’ apparent indifference.

While prices have begun to slide, they remain much higher than they were five years ago—suggesting that the vast majority of homes on the market may still be unaffordable for many buyers in the city already struggling with high mortgage rates and growing housing costs.

Denver’s housing market exploded during the pandemic, when the nationwide homebuying frenzy spurred by historically low mortgage rates found fertile ground in the city. In the past five years, however, inventory dried up, and mile-high home prices and high mortgage rates have pushed homeownership out of the reach of many locals.

Now, however, things are starting to change. Inventory is finally growing again, as sellers who were waiting for lower mortgage rates have accepted that the situation might not change anytime soon. In Denver, listings are now above pre-pandemic norms, suggesting that prices might soon come down as buyers acquire more negotiating power.

Inventory is on the rise in Denver, but sales are not keeping up.

According to the Denver Metro Association of Realtors (DMAR), there were 13,599 active listings in the city in May, up 13.67 percent from a month earlier and the highest number since 2011. New listings, at 7,284, went up by 3.14 percent.

While pending sales were also on the rise month-over-month by 6.88 percent at 4,349, the number of closed sales was actually down 2.63 percent at 4,036. Sales volume, at $2.91 billion, was down by 2.44 percent.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 69 Comments

Can’t lose in real estate

Posted on June 4, 2025 by grim

From Realtor.com:

Home Prices Are ‘Not on the Verge of a Nuclear Crash’: Economist Projects Modest Price Gains of 3% in 2025

National Association of Realtors® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun has said that he believes home sales will pick up in the second half of the year and that national median home prices will grow 3% in 2025.

Speaking at the Realtors Legislative Meetings in Washington, DC, on Tuesday, Yun argued that overall home prices will continue to grow modestly, despite weak sales in the first half of the year and an uptick in seller price reductions.

“Home prices are not on the verge of a nuclear crash,” said Yun, pointing to low levels of serious mortgage delinquencies as a sign that few homeowners will be forced into distressed sales.

Despite weak sales activity in the early part of the year, Yun forecasts existing-home sales will rebound and rise 6% this year compared with 2024, while new-home sales will rise 10%.

His forecast hinges on mortgage rates easing to 6.4% by the end of the year, alongside continued labor market growth with 1.6 million jobs added to the economy across 2025.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 117 Comments

What will tip the market?

Posted on June 3, 2025 by grim

From Quartz:

America’s housing market is cracking

After more than two years of relentless price increases, the fundamentals are shifting. Home prices are starting to fall, unsold inventory is piling up to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, and buyers — from first-time purchasers to luxury shoppers — are walking away from deals or demanding steep discounts. 

The combination of mortgage rates hovering around 7% and mounting economic uncertainty around tariffs has created a host of reasons for a buyer to hesitate. What’s emerging is a market where sellers are making concessions and buyers hold the cards — a dramatic reversal from the bidding wars and cash offers that defined the market.

Home prices in the 20 biggest U.S. metropolitan areas fell 0.12% in March from the previous month, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. It’s a small dip, sure, but it marks the end of a relentless upward march that has defined the housing market since January 2023.

The bigger shift is happening in supply. Unsold completed new single-family homes hit 117,000 in April — the highest level since July 2009, according to Census Bureau data analyzed by housing researcher Lance Lambert. That’s a 31% jump from the previous year, and it’s happening at a time when homebuilders are getting increasingly nervous about demand.

Even luxury buyers are backing away. Luxury home sales fell 10%in April from a year earlier, marking the steepest decline since 2023, according to Redfin data. This isn’t just about mortgage rates — these are cash buyers and jumbo loan borrowers who theoretically have more financial flexibility. But the retreat among wealthy buyers reflects a broader pattern of anxiety spreading even among the top 5% of U.S. households, with some $7 trillion sitting in money-market funds rather than being deployed into assets like real estate and stocks.

For buyers, the landscape is becoming more negotiable.Almost half of sellers are already offering concessions, according to Redfin, and inventory levels are at the highest point since September 2020.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 64 Comments

Expensive houses going to get even more expensive

Posted on June 2, 2025 by grim

From NJ Spotlight News:

As housing prices rise, Murphy wants a tax increase

With housing prices rising steadily and aggravating affordability concerns, Gov. Phil Murphy wants to hike fees levied on New Jersey’s priciest real estate sales, a tax increase that would be paid by buyers.

Murphy is calling for that tax hike, as well as about $1 billion in other increases, to help narrow a wide gap between how much state government spends and collects from taxes each year.

Under Murphy’s plan, the existing 1% state fee, commonly referred to as the mansion tax, levied on houses and buildings with sales prices topping $1 million would be increased to 2%.

The same tax proposal, which requires approval from state lawmakers, also calls for creating a new, 3% state levy on the sales of properties with prices over $2 million.

While the proposed rate changes appear to be modest, the Murphy administration has estimated the increases would bring in more than $315 million in additional revenue during the new fiscal year that begins July 1.

That’s a significant amount of money for a state that has been drawing down billions of dollars in budget reserves in recent years to help narrow gaps between planned expenditures and revenues, a practice fiscal-policy experts have warned is unsustainable over the long term.

However, it’s now up to lawmakers to decide what to do with Murphy’s budget proposals and his proposed tax increases as they face the task of drafting an appropriations bill for the new fiscal year.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics, Property Taxes | 107 Comments

Bergen goes Blockchain

Posted on June 1, 2025 by grim

From The Street:

New Jersey just put $240 billion worth of real estate on the blockchain

New Jersey’s most populous county, Bergen County, is home to approximately 1 million.

Part of the prosperous New York City metropolitan area that is worth a gross metropolitan product of $2.6 trillion, the county has recently entered into a new deal that could push the frontiers of its highly developed real estate industry.

Bergen County has entered into a 5-year partnership with the real estate infrastructure firm Balcony to tokenize its entire real estate deeds worth $240 billion on the Avalanche blockchain network.

Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs) refers to the process of turning RWAs such as real estate, art, etc., into on-chain, digital tokens on a blockchain for easier and faster trades, settlements, and transfers.

Over 370,000 property deeds across all 70 municipalities in Bergen County will soon migrate on-chain in what Avalanche claims is the “largest blockchain deed tokenization project in U.S. history.”

The initiative is expected to reduce deed settlement time from 90 days to only 1 day.

Several NJ municipalities paid up to $1 million per breach in 2023 alone to restore core infrastructure hit by ransomware, the statement said. The digitization aims to make records searchable, tamper-proof, and secure against such frauds.

While Bergen County has signed the deal, other NJ municipalities such as Camden, Orange, Morristown, and Fort Lee are also holding talks with Balcony regarding the tokenization of real estate deeds worth an estimated $290 billion.

“By digitizing property records, we are making the process simpler, faster, and more secure for homeowners, businesses, and future generations,” Bergen County clerk John Hogan said. “Our plan is to use this forward-thinking approach to enhance transparency, reduce delays, and protect against hacks ensuring that Bergen County remains a leader in innovation and service to our community.”

Posted in Economics, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 23 Comments

Double up!

Posted on May 31, 2025 by grim

From NJ1015:

A housing trend that is exploding in NJ

Is it the money? Is it the melting pot?

It’s both.

There is a huge, growing trend happening in New Jersey. Increasingly, families are living in multigenerational households, where three generations, and sometimes even more, reside under the same roof.

According to a recent study by Deeds.com using U.S. Census Bureau data, New Jersey ranks 6th in the nation for this trend. This means 4.46% of Garden State homes have at least three generations living there. That translates to 157,000 out of the state’s 3.5 million households.

We already knew that New Jersey is incredibly expensive, which is why it became the number one state for grown children still living at home with their parents. Here, 42.7% of adults 18 to 34 years old continue to live with their parents. It’s not an independence problem. It’s a financial problem.

So it only makes sense that those sane economic realities have resulted in the exploding trend of even more generations living together. But it’s not only money.

We also have a high number of foreign-born residents here. Such a diverse population includes immigrant communities from Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, where multigenerational living had already been a cultural norm.

The only states where this is happening even more than here are Maryland, Delaware, Texas, California, and Hawaii, with Hawaii being number one. So if you’re going to be selling your home and it happens to include an in-law suite, you might be sitting pretty.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, National Real Estate, New Jersey Real Estate | 20 Comments

Case Shiller starts to show red

Posted on May 29, 2025 by grim

From Housingwire:

Pace of home-price appreciation falls for the second month in a row

Home-price appreciation continues to grow in 2025 and another report confirms that.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for March rose 3.37% year over year. That pace is a decrease from a 3.9% annual gain in February and 4.1% in January. Buyers and sellers in March were benefiting from falling interest rates and rapidly rising inventory.

While inventory continues to show large year-over-year gains, President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in April pushed mortgage rates back up to 7%, which has the potential to negatively impact sales.

“It is likely that home prices will not grow as fast this year as they have over the past couple of years,” said Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant in a statement. “More inventory has been coming onto the market, which gives buyers more leverage and room for negotiation.”

Home prices in major cities continue to drive the national increase in the index. The 10-city composite index is up by 4.76% annually and the 20-city index is up 4.07%. Those are both monthly gains of more than 1%.

Three of the four cities with the highest annual gain are in the Midwest, with Chicago (6.5%), Cleveland (5.9%) and Detroit (5.77%) leading the way. New York posted the largest year-over-year increase in home prices by far at 7.96%.

Florida remains the state with the most sluggish price growth. Miami has posted two consecutive month-over-month drops but is up 1.78% annually. Tampa, which is still recovering from Hurricane Milton in October, has also dropped two months in a row and is down by 2.16% compared to last year.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 195 Comments

NJ office market tightens

Posted on May 28, 2025 by grim

From NJBIZ:

Northeast office markets post lower vacancies, higher rents

While occupancy rates may be less certain comparatively, a new report finds all Northeastern markets posted vacancy rates below the national average (19.7%) in April.

CommercialEdge’s May 2025 Office Market Report, released May 20, highlights Manhattan as having the lowest regional vacancy rate (16.2%), followed by New Jersey at 18.9%. The local figure represented a slight uptick, following an 80-basis-point annual increase in the Garden State.

Among other trends, the paper notes an overall shift in demand toward suburban locations as central business districts continue to struggle; as well as a continued slowdown in office construction. According to the report, just 2.8 million square feet of sector space got started nationwide in April.

In New Jersey, both well-connected downtown areas – like Morristown, where Sanofi just moved from Bridgewater – as well as updated, trophy office parks in the burbs have recently drawn tenants.

“Every market is unique and nuanced, but the overarching trend that downtowns are struggling with less office workers and higher office vacancy is consistent across the country,” noted Peter Kolaczynski, director, CommercialEdge.
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Rents in the Northeast did drop over the period; however, CommercialEdge noted local regions still rank among the priciest nationwide.

Manhattan led the pack (in the Northeast and across the U.S.), with average asking rents at $68.34 per square foot. Even with its 4.1% annual decrease, that was still well above the national average of $33.34 per square foot. Boston and New Jersey also surpassed that benchmark. The former posted price points of $46.06 per square foot, while the Garden State was just above it at $33.45 per square foot.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 138 Comments

Will a recession tip the market?

Posted on May 27, 2025 by grim

From Barrons:

Home Sellers Are Dropping Prices, but Buyers Aren’t Budging. What Could Change That.

The number of homes listed for sale this spring has jumped, but as costs remain prohibitive, buyers aren’t returning with the same enthusiasm. A recession could change that by pushing prices lower in some parts of the U.S.

The disconnect can be seen to differing degrees across the U.S. In Dallas, where inventory is “starting to pile up,” more buyers are calling off their searches and choosing to wait, says Texas Re/Max agent Todd Luong. In New Jersey, one of the most competitive states for residential real estate, homes remain in high demand—but sellers aren’t seeing the frenzy they’re used to, says Michael Read, a Morristown-based mortgage lender and real estate agent. “Buyers aren’t as excited as they might have been in the past,” he says.

Nationally, existing-home sales are down 2.4% through April despite a 5.1% gain in the number of properties for sale, says National Association of Realtors senior economist Nadia Evangelou. Costs are an issue: “The market is seeing a recovery in listings, but demand remains soft due to affordability constraints,” she says.

Home prices rose roughly 40% in the first 2½ years of the pandemic—and a relatively short supply boosted them further even as mortgage rates raced to their highest levels in decades. Mortgage rates’ volatile moves since then—like the sharp swing toward 7% after Moody’s downgraded its rating on U.S. sovereign debt —haven’t helped.

The housing market is already shifting out of sellers’ favor, but buyers aren’t quite in the driver’s seat, either. Sellers expect the sky-high prices of 2021, while buyers want the burst-housing-bubble deals of 2011, says Leo Pareja, the CEO of eXp Realty. Neither expectation is a sure thing. Nationally, sellers cut prices on nearly one in five listings last month, a larger share than any April since at least 2017, according to Realtor.com. (News Corp, which owns Barron’s, also owns Realtor.com operator Move.)

That imbalance is working its way into the market through price cuts—a notable shift in a housing market that has broadly favored sellers for the past several years. “It’s going to become a buyer’s market,” says Ivy Zelman, executive vice president and co-founder of housing analytics firm Zelman & Associates.

A recession could change the equation more quickly. Recession odds have fallen precipitously in the wake of the China-U.S. trade agreement, with J.P. Morgan revising its call on the likelihood of a recession to less than 50% from 60%. The agreement has put a pause on the harshest possible outcomes—but the effects of the new levies have yet to fully play out in the economy.
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Forecasts for home prices nationally are already flirting with declines. Zillow expects home values to drop 1.4% this year as more sellers entered the market than buyers. Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, expects that nominal home prices could range from flat to up 2% this year—and that is without a recession.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Recovery, National Real Estate | 65 Comments

Just needs a little … rejuvenation

Posted on May 25, 2025 by grim

From NJ.com:

This $4.6 million Jersey Shore house is being marketed as a tear-down

If you read the listing for this 125-year-old home for sale in Spring Lake it sounds like it’s being marketed as a tear-down.

It’s being called a “rare opportunity to build a custom luxury home in one of the shore’s most desirable communities.”

But if you ask Susan S. Careatti of BHHS Fox & Roach Spring Lake, the listing agent, she really hopes someone “rejuvenates” it — her preferred word for renovating.

“I’m a purist and this house depicts what the Spring Lake that I know truly is,” she said. “It just has a wonderful feel and flow to it. The design of it is timeless.”

The home is nearly 3,500 square feet, has six bedrooms, three full and one half bathroom and sits on a 0.34-acre, 100 by 150 foot lot. It’s listed for sale for $4.6 million. 

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Shore Real Estate | 33 Comments