ATTOM, a leading curator of land, property, and real estate data, today released a Special Housing Risk Report spotlighting county-level housing markets around the United States that are more or less vulnerable to declines, based on home affordability, foreclosures, underwater mortgages and other measures in the third quarter of 2023. The report shows that California, New Jersey and Illinois have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas, as well as central California. Less-vulnerable markets are spread mainly throughout the South, Midwest and Northeast.
The third-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that California, New Jersey and Illinois had 33 of the 50 counties considered most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. Those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country at a time of mixed market trends when home prices and homeowner equity improved but home affordability and foreclosure activity worsened.
The metropolitan areas around Chicago, IL, and New York, NY, as well as central California, had 21 of the 50 U.S. counties considered most vulnerable in the third quarter of 2023 to housing market troubles (from among 578 counties with enough data to analyze).
The 50 most at-risk counties included three in New York City (Kings and Richmond counties, which cover Brooklyn and Staten Island, and Bronx County), six in the New York City suburbs (Bergen, Essex, Ocean, Passaic, Sussex and Union counties, all in New Jersey) and seven in the Chicago metropolitan area (Cook, De Kalb, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties in Illinois, and Lake County in Indiana).
The five in central California were Fresno County, Madera County (outside Fresno), Merced County (outside Fresno); San Joaquin County (Stockton) and Stanislas County (Modesto).
Elsewhere, the top-50 list included three each in northern California, southern California and the Philadelphia, PA, metro area. They were Butte County (outside Sacramento), El Dorado County (outside Sacramento) and Humboldt County (Eureka) in northern California and Kern County (Bakersfield), Riverside County and San Bernardino County in southern California. Those in the Philadelphia area were Philadelphia County, Gloucester County, NJ, and Camden County, NJ.