Sell your soul to live in NJ

Posted on July 18, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

NJ Realtors’ June housing market data shows ongoing affordability crisis

New Jersey’s housing market continues to grapple with an affordability crisis, with single-family home prices reaching a median of $600,000, according to data given by New Jersey Realtors.

Although inventory has improved compared to a year ago, many first-time buyers continue to face significant barriers to homeownership amid elevated prices and mortgage rates.

Closed sales, pending sales, and new listings all increased year-over-year, while inventory continued its gradual improvement, giving buyers slightly more options than this time last year. At the same time, rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates continued to put pressure on affordability across the state.

The data provided below reflects year-to-date through June 2026 unless otherwise indicated. The percentage reflects the year-over-year change.

Statewide Market Highlights — Total Market 

  • Median Sales Price: $537,000 (+3.3%)
  • Closed Sales: 36,891 (-3.4%)
  • Pending Sales: 42,463 (+0.2%)
  • New Listings: 63,184 (+2.9%)
  • Homes for Sale in June: 20,744 (+4.9%)
  • Days on Market: 41 (+5.1%)
  • Percent of List Price Received: 101.3% (-0.5%)

Single-Family Homes

  • Median Sales Price: $600,000 (+3.4%)
  • Closed Sales: 24,860 (-2.3%)

Townhouse/Condominiums

  • Median Sales Price: $434,998 (+2.4%)
  • Closed Sales: 8,437 (-8.1%)

Posted in General | 66 Comments

Summer Slump

Posted on July 17, 2026 by grim

From HousingWire:

Pending home sales fall 5.4% in June, NAR says

After rising on both a monthly and yearly basis in May, pending home sales were down in June, according to data released Thursday by the National Association of Realtors(NAR). 

Nationwide, NAR’s Pending Home Sales index came in at a reading of 72.5 in June, down 5.4% month-over-month and 0.3% annually. 

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year NAR examined this data.

“The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers,” NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement. “It is worth emphasizing that it is closing activity, not contract signings, that generates economic impact. Pending contracts are only suggestive of upcoming closed deals and do not align perfectly, due to fallout rates and contract contingencies.”

Regionally, pending home sales were down month-over-month in all four regions, with the Midwest (73.8) posting the largest decline at 8.9%, followed by a decline of 4.7% in the West (54.9), 4.1% in the South (86.4) and 3.0% in the Northeast (65.6). On an annual basis, pending home sales were up in the Midwest (0.3%) and Northeast (2.2%), but down in the South (-0.9%) and West (-1.1%).

“With contract signings falling in all four major regions, the broad-based decline suggests the recent run-up in mortgage rates is finally catching up with buyers’ wallets,” Sam Williamson, First American’s senior economist, said in a statement. “Other leading indicators point in the same direction. Mortgage purchase applications, another forward-looking gauge, have softened in recent weeks after climbing for much of the spring, with the seasonally adjusted purchase index falling to about 157 in mid-July, its lowest since February. Weaker applications alongside fewer contract signings suggest buyers and sellers are settling back onto the sidelines.”

Posted in National Real Estate | 74 Comments

Big spenders in North Jersey

Posted on July 16, 2026 by grim

From NorthJersey:

These are North Jersey’s top homebuying ZIP codes halfway through 2026

Bergen County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07481 – Wyckoff – $1.16 million
  2. 07450 – Ridgewood – $1.11 million
  3. 07452 – Glen Rock – $1.1 million
  4. 07436 – Oakland – $779,700
  5. 07446 – Ramsey – $983,725

Passaic County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07456 – Ringwood – $614,450
  2. 07506 – Hawthorne – $630,950
  3. 07470 – Wayne – $752,449
  4. 074438 – Oak Ridge – $554,500
  5. 07403 – Bloomingdale – $557,400

Morris County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07930 – Chester – $1.28 million
  2. 07836 – Flanders – $808,500
  3. 07828 – Budd Lake – $617,250
  4. 07940 – Madison – $1.65 million
  5. 07936 – East Hanover – $1.06 million

Essex County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07042 – Montclair – $919,000
  2. 07009 – Cedar Grove – $814,950
  3. 07006 – Caldwell – $799,249
  4. 07044 – Verona – $599,000
  5. 07110 – Nutley – $689,000

Sussex County’s hottest towns for homebuying, by ZIP code

  1. 07871 – Sparta – $662,450
  2. 07874 – Stanhope – $455,000
  3. 07860 – Newton – $487,499
  4. 07461 – Sussex – $499,000
  5. 07827 – Montague – $307,975
Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 57 Comments

Come to Jersey!

Posted on July 15, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Manhattan luxury real estate market plummets after Mamdani pied-à-terre tax goes into effect

Manhattan’s luxury real estate market ground to a halt last week, with just one trophy home asking more than $10 million entering contract — as brokers told The Post that anti-wealth rhetoric from Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the controversial pied-à-terre tax are spooking affluent buyers.

Only one eight-figure-plus home found a buyer between July 6 and July 12, even as 29 Manhattan homes priced at $4 million or more went into contract during the period, according to Olshan Realty’s weekly luxury market report.

Realtors told The Post that normally, between three and five properties priced at $10 million and upwards enter contract per week.

The broader luxury market was far more resilient. Nineteen condos, six co-ops, and four townhouses priced at $4 million or more entered contract during the week, with 20 of the 29 deals involving homes asking less than $6 million.

The lone trophy-home deal marked the weakest week for Manhattan’s $10 million-plus market since the last week of December, according to the report.

Compass broker Victoria Shtainer told The Post the slowdown reflects growing unease among wealthy buyers over New York’s political climate and tax burden.

“It was shocking in a really bad way,” Shtainer told The Post. “The luxury buyer [is] backing off and thinking twice.”

Shtainer, who works with international buyers and luxury condominium developments, said affluent purchasers are increasingly scrutinizing whether New York remains an attractive place to own a second home.

“I think the $10 million-plus buyer is an educated buyer,” she said. “They really do their homework. They understand taxes, property tax. They have advisers. This is something that they’re considering, and they’re looking at New York as a whole. Is it friendly for the wealthy buyer or not?”

While summer is typically a slower season for Manhattan real estate, Shtainer said the latest numbers were well below normal.


Posted in Gold Coast, New Jersey Real Estate, NYC, Politics | 69 Comments

Will reduced immigration lower home prices?

Posted on July 14, 2026 by grim

From MSN:

New Harvard report: The US housing market just flashed a major warning signal for 2026

A study from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies identified two key factors contributing to shifts in the market. 

A new report found that housing demand in the U.S. has dropped, an indication that much larger issues for the market may be ahead. 

According to a report from the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, household growth—the change in occupied housing units each year—slowed to about 1.1 million in 2025, a substantial decrease from pandemic-era highs. 

The shift may be due to a lack of sales from younger generations who are facing a competitive and scarce job market. In 2025, the U.S. added 116,000 jobs, the smallest amount in a non-recession year since 2002, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

“The slowdown in household growth reflects reduced household formation among young adults amid a weakened job market, burdensome student debt and low consumer sentiment,” reads the report. “Many young adults cannot afford to form new households, instead doubling up or living with family.” 

However, the housing demand doesn’t equate to a lack of interest in purchasing a home, warns Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, a information services provider. 

“What we’re really seeing is demand being constrained by affordability, economic uncertainty, and mobility challenges,” she told Inc. “Many households that would traditionally be entering the market are waiting on the sidelines, not because they don’t want to buy, but because they can’t make the economics work.” 
…
The U.S.’s decreasing home demand can also be attributed to changes in population. Recent legislation from the Trump administration has funneled billions of dollars into immigration enforcement, border security, and deportation infrastructure. According to the Harvard report, net international migration halved in 2025 and is projected to plummet another 75 percent in 2026. 

“Immigration has historically been an important source of both economic growth and housing demand, so sustained restrictions will likely be a headwind for both,” said Hepp.

She told Inc. that immigration is an important long-term driver of housing demand in the United States. And while lack of immigrants throughout the country could mean reduced housing demand in some markets, it also creates potential economic obstacles by slowing labor force growth and making it harder to address housing supply shortages. 

“When immigration slows significantly, the impact on housing is not immediate everywhere, but over time it can meaningfully reduce household growth and overall housing demand. Certain markets—including technology hubs, gateway cities, and regions that have historically attracted international workers—will feel those effects more than others,” Hepp said.

While homeownership interest is still present across all generations, the country’s affordability crisis has hindered the ability for all interest parties to make such a purchase. Hepp told Inc. that the market’s high prices could be reversible, but only if the country supplies more housing.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, Politics | 70 Comments

Will it even matter?

Posted on July 12, 2026 by grim

From Fortune:

Homes are in short supply in the U.S. How a new law could change the market

The 21st Century Road to Housing Act, which passed both chambers of Congress by a huge margin, is designed to bring relief to Americans struggling with lofty prices and mortgage rates. Its impact might not be felt for years, however, given the often long timelines on construction projects and state and local statutes that limit development.

The fate of the legislation had been up in the air after President Donald Trump announced that he wouldn’t sign the measure. Trump ultimately opted not to use his veto power to try to block the bill, clearing the way for it to become law.
…
The bipartisan legislation aims to alleviate a housing shortage that has contributed to voters’ frustrations over affordability. The law includes new rules making it easier to develop factory-built housing and encouraging localities to remove barriers to construction.

The housing act also seeks to curb large investors’ footprint in the housing market, in part by barring institutional investors that own more than 350 homes from purchasing additional single-family properties.

Among the law’s initiatives is a program to incentivize state and local governments to overhaul restrictive zoning policies that constrain housing construction. There are provisions to establish pre-approved home designs and streamline environmental reviews in an effort to reduce the regulatory hurdles that slow or block new construction. In addition, the bill would create a pilot program to give competitive federal grants to localities that convert underused commercial buildings into affordable housing. 

The legislation also includes nine provisions relaxing regulatory requirements for community banks that could make it easier for them to extend mortgage loans. 
…
After signaling that he would sign the housing bill once Congress approved it, Trump abruptly declared that he wouldn’t put his signature on the measure unless Congress adopted an unrelated voter ID bill. The move provided a dramatic last-minute twist to lawmakers’ efforts to adopt the bill. 

Trump could have vetoed the legislation outright, potentially leading Congress to vote on whether to override the veto. But by neither signing nor vetoing the legislation, it automatically became law 10 days after being formally sent to the president’s desk. The legislation originally passed the House of Representatives and the Senate by overwhelming majorities.

Posted in National Real Estate, New Development, Politics | 124 Comments

Inventory UP!

Posted on July 10, 2026 by grim

From NorthJersey.com:

Northeast saw big home inventory gains in June. Your NJ market update

It’s a positive story for real estate in June: Housing inventory was up, especially in the Northeast; pending home sales increased for the seventh straight month and asking prices dipped.

Inventory levels nationwide grew in June for the 32nd straight month, with a modest 1.9% year-over-year increase and a 4.1% month-over-month increase. Despite this growth, inventory remained 11.3% below pre-pandemic levels.

The Northeast had the nation’s largest gains in housing inventory with a 8.5% year-over-year increase, followed by a 7.3% year-over-year increase in the Midwest.

Listings typically spent about 53 days on the market, matching last June, ending a 26-month streak of homes taking longer to sell year-over-year, Realtor.com said.

The national median listing price was $430,000, down 2.5% year-over-year — the steepest annual drop in Realtor.com data since 2017 and the eighth straight month of declines. And 18.8% of listings had price reductions in June.

In New Jersey, there were 19,413 active listings in June, up 12.68% from the previous year and 5.53% from June 2026. And of those active listings, 10,700 were newly listed in June, Realtor.com market data showed.

The state had a median listing price of $575,000, down 0.77% year-over-year and up 1.05% month-over-month. There were 4,964 price reductions in June — 15.76% more than the previous year and 15.44% more than May 2026 — and listings stayed on the market for about 38 days, Realtor.com said.
…
Nineteen of New Jersey’s 21 counties had an increase in active listings compared with June 2025, and 19 counties had an increase in active listings compared with the previous month, May 2026.
…
Bergen: 1,728 listings (17.92%)
Passaic: 633 listings (33.4%)
Morris: 851 listings (15.48%)
Essex: 899 listings (6.77%)
Sussex: 505 listings (2.54%)
Hudson: 1,273 listings (11.72%)

Posted in New Jersey Real Estate | 127 Comments

Foreclosures tick up as covid forbearance ends

Posted on July 9, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Foreclosures hit highest level since 2020 — but experts say it’s actually good news for homebuyers

Foreclosure listings are climbing to their highest level since 2020, but housing experts say homebuyers shouldn’t mistake the uptick for the start of another housing meltdown.

Instead, the growing inventory could spell opportunity for bargain hunters looking to score homes at deep discounts.

“People are probably wondering if this is the highest since 2020; does that mean that we’re heading towards some sort of foreclosure crisis or crash like we saw in 2008?” Realtor.com Senior Economist Jake Krimmel told The California Post, before underscoring that it’s very “far from the case.” 

Instead, Krimmel argued the rise in foreclosures is actually a market “normalization” due to pandemic-era relief programs like mortgage forbearance and payment deferral recently ending. 

“We’ve come off really historic lows that any uptick is going to draw some attention,” Krimmel said. 

But while the share of foreclosures has ticked up, the prices to purchase have dipped dramatically — offering buyers a chance to score a home about 27% below its estimated value, according to Realtor.com data. 

“Just the mere fact that it was a foreclosure listing carries about a 27 percent discount,” Krimmel said. 

Posted in Foreclosures, National Real Estate | 46 Comments

Keep ‘em coming!

Posted on July 6, 2026 by grim

From MSN:

Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave drove up home prices 30%

A new Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas working paper estimates the record surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration boosted employment while driving up home prices by as much as 30% and rent by 20%.

The paper combined immigration court records with government administrative data to create the first ever calculation of how a wave of 7 million illegal immigrants from 2021 through 2024 affected local labor and housing markets.

“From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode,” the working paper said.

“The total weighted-mean increases in house prices and rents over this period were 22.4% and 22.6%, respectively. Putting these together, for the average MSA, UIWF can explain approximately 30% of the total increase in house prices and 20% of the total increase in rents,” it added.

The researchers said they found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, essentially creating a demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 205 Comments

Not here though…

Posted on July 4, 2026 by grim

From Newsweek:

Home Prices Fall At Record Pace

After a sluggish spring season marked by ongoing affordability issues and growing economic fears around the Iran war, U.S. homebuyers could be lured back into the market by listing prices that are now falling at the fastest pace in at least nine years, according to the latest housing data.

The national median asking price in June fell 2.5 percent year-over-year to $430,000, according to real estate listings and online marketplace Realtor.com. It was the steepest annual decline since the platform started tracking data in 2017, marking the eighth consecutive month of falling prices in the country.

According to Realtor.com estimates, a buyer who purchased a $430,000 home last month with a 20 percent down payment and an average mortgage rate of 6.49 percent now faces a typical monthly payment of $2,172—saving about $132 a month compared to someone who had bought a home in June 2025 at the median listed price of $440,950 and when rates averaged 6.82 percent.

Median listing prices fell in all regions of the country, led by the West (-4.0 percent year-over-year to $600,000) and the South (-2.5 percent to $389,000). The Northeast saw a modest decline (-1.0 percent to $554,500), while in the Midwest prices were unchanged (at $329,900).

June also marked another record shift: for the first time in more than two years, the typical for-sale home spent no more time on the market than it did a year earlier, 53 days.

“It was a no-news-is-good-news June,” Jake Krimmel, senior economist at Realtor.com, said in a statement commenting on the data. “While it may seem obvious now, this was far from a foregone conclusion just a few months ago.”

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 106 Comments

Boomers had it easy

Posted on July 3, 2026 by grim

From USA Today:

For under-40 Americans, buying a first home has never been harder

Millennials think that buying a first-time home has never been harder. 

They’re pretty much right. 

Back in 1975, a typical home cost about 2.4 times as much as the average under-40 household earned in a year, a standard measure of housing affordability, according to a new report from Pew Research Center.  

By 2019, that price-to-income ratio had risen to 2.9. In 2024, it reached 3.5. 

Over the past decade, home prices have risen much faster than wages. The rising ratio of price to income, coupled with elevated interest rates, has put homeownership out of reach for millions of millennial and Gen Z Americans. 
…
First-time buyers represented only 21% of all home purchasers in 2025, a record low, according to the National Association of Realtors. The typical age of a first-time buyer climbed to 40, an all-time high. 

Nine in 10 adults under 40 say buying a first home is harder for them today than for their parents’ generation, Pew reports in a new survey. All under-40 adults are millennials, born between 1981 and 1996, or Gen Zers, born in 1997 or later.  

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 46 Comments

New budget, and it’s a big one

Posted on July 1, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

Sherrill signs record $60.7B N.J. budget. It saves senior tax relief, but fewer will get full payment.

New Jersey has a new state budget — just in the nick of time — as the state Legislature passed and Gov. Mikie Sherrill signed a record $60.7 billion spending plan Tuesday night, the first of her tenure, before the state’s midnight constitutional deadline.

They also approved nearly $360 million in supplemental spending for the budget set to expire.

Sherrill, a Democrat in her first year as governor, once again touted the plan as one that “puts affordability first,” stressing it provides a record level of property-tax relief. The budget lays outs how the state government will spend taxpayer money in the fiscal year that begins Wednesday.

But a little-noticed provision means some seniors who remain eligible for the Stay NJ property-tax break will receive less than the promised maximum benefit this year.

“It focuses on you — a budget that builds a future for your kids and your family,” Sherrill said standing alongside top Democratic lawmakers who lead the Legislature during an evening news conference in the Statehouse rotunda in Trenton. 

“This budget runs towards our toughest problems, not away from them.”

The annual mad dash to wrap up the annual budget in the final days of June provides a record $12 billion in school aid, $6 billion for public worker pensions, and more than $4.3 billion in property-tax relief. It also sets aside $6 billion in surplus, though that’s down from the state’s current $7.7 billion surplus.

The plan includes about $50 million to temporarily expand the state’s child tax credit and a new fee on large employers whose workers rely on Medicaid for their health insurance. Sherrill noted how it also does not feature broad tax increases on residents, while it does feature money for housing and safeguards against President Donald Trump’s policies.

Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 120 Comments

Could be worse

Posted on June 29, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

New Jersey payrolls rose in May; jobless rate declines

Preliminary nonfarm employment estimates for May, produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, indicate that New Jersey payrolls increased by 2,200 over the month, resulting in a seasonally adjusted employment level of 4,388,200 jobs.

The state’s unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage point to 4.7% from April to May, the lowest level since October 2024. The jobless rate in New Jersey has declined for the last five months.

Employment estimates for April were revised upward to show a March to April gain of 7,100 nonfarm jobs (preliminary estimate: +5,600). The state’s unemployment rate for April remained at 4.8%. 

Over the past month, three out of nine private industry sectors recorded employment gains compared with April. Those sectors were leisure and hospitality (+3,000), construction (+600), and trade, transportation and utilities (+200).

Sectors that recorded job losses included professional and business services (-1,500), manufacturing (-500), private education and health services (-400), other services (-300) and financial activities (-200). The information area recorded no change over the month. The public sector posted a gain of 1,300 jobs for the month.

Over the year, the state recorded a total loss of 3,100 nonfarm jobs, with the private sector recording a loss of 300 jobs. Private education and health services industry recorded a year-over-year increase of 26,100 jobs.

Losses were recorded year-over-year in trade, transportation, and utilities (-6,400), leisure and hospitality (-5,300), manufacturing (-5,000), construction (-3,800), financial activities (-2,600), other services (-1,600), information (-1,100), and professional and business services (-500). The public sector posted a loss of 2,800 jobs over the same timeframe.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Jersey Real Estate | 149 Comments

Awww, too bad.

Posted on June 28, 2026 by grim

From ATTOM:

Home Flipping Profits Lowest Since Great Recession

ATTOM, the leading provider of property data, AI-powered analytics, and real estate intelligence solutions, today released its 2025 year-end U.S. Home Flipping Report, which shows that 297,045 single-family homes and condos were flipped nationwide in 2025. That was the fewest home flips recorded in a year since 2020, and down 3.9 percent from 2024’s total of 309,050.

Homes flipped by investors accounted for 7.4 percent of all home sales in 2025, down slightly from 7.6 percent the year prior.

As the nation saw its highest median home sales prices on record, Investors’ profit margins shrunk. The typical flipped home netted $65,981 in gross profit, down from $77,000 in 2024, resulting in a 25.5 percent return on investment, the lowest rate recorded since 2008 and down from 32.1 percent the prior year.

Home flippers experienced a boom decade after the 2008 financial crisis. Typical flipped homes were acquired for less than $150,000 and profit margins consistently exceeded 50 percent, even reaching 61.1 percent in 2012. But home prices have soared in recent years, bringing investor returns back to their pre-financial crisis levels.

“Competition for homes remains strong in many markets due to constrained supply,” said Rob Barber, CEO of ATTOM. “With prices staying elevated, investors are finding it harder to secure deals that deliver strong returns.”

“Flippers are having to get more creative to maintain profitability,” he added. “That could include taking on older homes, as the median flipped property in 2025 was built in 1978, the oldest since we began tracking, along with tighter cost control and more disciplined renovation strategies.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 27 Comments

Market slowdown?

Posted on June 27, 2026 by grim

From Fast Company:

Zillow downgrades its home price forecast. Here’s its outlook for 400-plus housing markets

Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift -0.2% between May 2026 and May 2027.

That’s a tiny downward revision from its 12-month national forecast published in April (+0.1%) and its 12-month national forecast published in March (+0.5%).

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up 0.8% year over year. Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace.

As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. wage growth(currently up 3.5%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as overheating from the pandemic housing boom gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability should also continue to gradually improve.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative, it isn’t exactly bullish either. Analysts are predicting a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 32 Comments