Time for prices to go down?

Posted on May 13, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

House prices will plummet in 300 US housing markets, study finds

A bombshell new forecast from Zillow finds more than one in three American housing markets heading into decline over the next year — and the cities taking the hardest hits are the ones that seemed untouchable just four years ago.

Of the 894 housing markets Zillow tracks, prices are expected to fall in 309, hold flat in just 14 and rise in 572 through March 2027. 

Nationally, Zillow now projects home prices will go nowhere over that stretch — a sharp downgrade from last month’s prediction of a 0.5% gain. 

The flat national number is the least important part. What matters is what’s happening underneath it.

The pandemic-era boomtowns of the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast are cratering. Overlooked mid-size cities in the Midwest and upstate New York are surging. And millions of American homeowners are about to find out which side of that divide their ZIP code sits on.

The steepest projected decline belongs to Houma, Louisiana, a city about an hour southwest of New Orleans, where prices are forecast to fall 7.0% over the next year. Lake Charles, Louisiana follows at 5.6%; then Austin, Texas at 4.6%; New Orleans at 4.4%; and Shreveport at 3.6%. Denver is down 3% in the forecast. California markets from Chico to Vallejo aren’t far behind.
…
Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather has been tracking a historic imbalance building across the country. In February 2026, there were approximately 630,000 more home sellers than buyers — the largest gap Redfin has recorded since it began keeping that data in 2013. The seller surplus hit 46.3%, up sharply from 29.8% just a year earlier. 

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages | 48 Comments

So much for spring

Posted on May 12, 2026 by grim

From HousingWire:

Existing home sales rise 0.2% in April as inventory grows

Existing-home sales ticked up 0.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million, while remaining flat from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors’ (NAR) April Existing Home Sales report released Monday.

The report offers a mixed view for housing professionals: slightly stronger demand, more inventory on the market and a notable improvement in affordability, but still-elevated mortgage rates and wide regional variation in sales.

NAR reported that total existing-home sales, which include single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops, came in at an annualized pace of 4.02 million in April. That was up 0.2% from March but unchanged compared with April 2025.

Total housing inventory reached 1.47 million units at the end of April, a 5.8% increase from March and 1.4% higher than a year ago. That equates to a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.2 months in March and 4.3 months a year earlier.

In more recent data, HousingWire Data shows that an estimated 83,993 existing homes were sold during the week that ended on May 8, 2026, with a median sales price of $415,000. Compared to the same time period a year ago, estimated existing home sales are up 6.3%, while the median home sales price remained relatively flat. 

As of May 8, 2026, HW Data shows that there are 767,132 active listings, up 5,528 homes from the previous week and up 1.5% compared to a year ago. As with NAR’s data, HW Data also show an annual increase in median days on market, which came in at 56 days for the week ending on May 8, 2026, up from 49 days a year prior.

“Despite mixed macroeconomic signals — including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence — home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in the NAR release. “Mortgage rates are lower from a year ago, and average income growth is outpacing home price gains.”

Yun cautioned that inventory “still remains tight” and that while multiple-offer situations are less intense than during the pandemic boom, they are still present. Days on market are stretching out on average, he said, suggesting buyers are taking more time to make decisions.

According to NAR, homes sold in a median of 32 days in April, an improvement from 41 days in March but longer than the 29-day median in April 2025.

The median existing-home sales price for all housing types rose to $417,700 in April, up 0.9% from $414,000 a year earlier. It marked the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases.

Despite the increase, NAR’s Housing Affordability Index showed a meaningful improvement. The index registered 110.6 in April, up from 101.4 a year earlier. Regionally, affordability improved year-over-year by 4.7% in the Northeast, 5.9% in the Midwest, 9.6% in the South and 12.5% in the West. 

For lenders and real estate agents, the combination of easing affordability and still-rising prices suggests demand is stabilizing rather than surging, and that buyers remain rate-sensitive but are gradually returning as incomes catch up with home values.

Posted in Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, Mortgages, National Real Estate | 82 Comments

Turn it into condos…

Posted on May 11, 2026 by grim

From NJ Business Magazine:

Anheuser-Busch Plant in Newark Sold for $360M

Newmark Group, Inc. has advised Anheuser-Busch in the $360 million sale of its former facility in Newark to Goodman Group, a global leader in industrial real estate ownership and development.

One of the last standing symbols of Newark’s brewing history,  Anheuser-Busch announced last December that its nearly 75-year-old beer brewery would close close after being sold.

Comprising approximately 86 acres and more than 1.7 million square feet of existing structures, the property represents one of the largest industrial redevelopment opportunities in the New York metro area. The parcel falls within the Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR/EWR-S) zoning districts, supporting a wide range of industrial, logistics, airport-related, data center, commercial and hospitality uses.

“Few sites offer this level of scale, connectivity and zoning flexibility,” said Newmark Executive Vice Chairman Adam Doneger. “These characteristics, combined with its location within one of the nation’s most critical logistics corridors, position it to support the next generation of industrial and infrastructure users.”

According to Newmark Research, Northern and Central New Jersey’s industrial market entered 2026 with strong momentum, recording its third consecutive quarter of positive net absorption as vacancy declined to 6.3%. Demand remains concentrated in Class A logistics facilities, while sustained port activity continues to reinforce the region’s position as a critical U.S. supply chain hub.

Located adjacent to Newark Liberty International Airport and less than one mile from Port Newark and Port Elizabeth, the property offers direct access to the New Jersey Turnpike and I-78, placing it within one of the most supply-constrained logistics corridors in the United States. The site features existing rail access and sits within a dense consumer base, with more than 20 million residents within a 15-mile radius and over 150,000 transportation and warehouse workers within a 30-minute drive.

Posted in Economics, Employment, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 32 Comments

Get off the lawn you pesky kids

Posted on May 10, 2026 by grim

From Visual Capitalist:

Mapped: Where Young Americans Still Own Homes

For Americans under 35 years old, the path to homeownership looks dramatically different across the country.

This map shows the share of young adults who own homes in each U.S. state, based on data from Evernest via ConsumerAffairs. While nearly half of young adults own homes across parts of the Midwest and South, ownership rates fall below 30% in high-cost states like Hawaii, California, and New York.

The data suggests high home prices are increasingly outweighing income gains for younger buyers.

Minnesota stands alone as the only state where a majority of Americans under 35 own homes.

Across much of the Midwest and South, lower home prices relative to incomes continue to make ownership attainable for younger households. States like Michigan, Alabama, Indiana, and West Virginia all report ownership rates near or above 47%.

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 25 Comments

Jobs Day!

Posted on May 8, 2026 by grim

From CNBC:

Here’s what to expect from Friday’s release of the April jobs report

Not that long ago, U.S. payroll growth of less than 100,000 or so a month meant the labor market was sinking and signaling a potential recession. No more, though, as that kind of number is pretty much all that is needed to keep unemployment steady and the Federal Reserve at bay.

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its job count for April on Friday morning at 8:30 a.m. ET, it’s expected to show a gain of just 55,000 — anemic compared with what the economy has seen in recent years, but enough to keep the jobless rate at a relatively low 4.3%.

The picture in total is one of a labor market that, while undoubtedly cooling, is generally stable and resilient despite a number of challenges.

“The headline message remains similar to previous employment reports, if anything, accentuated though,” said David Tinsley, senior economist at the Bank of America Institute. “The labor market momentum in terms of payrolls has really turned solid.”

The degree of stability, though, is in relative terms.

Against muted expectations, job gains totaled 178,000 in March, the best month since December 2024. But that still left the 12-month average at just 22,000. Excluding healthcare, the economy has seen a net loss of jobs.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment | 107 Comments

Best place for first time buyers? Not here.

Posted on May 7, 2026 by grim

From the NYT:

The Best Markets for First-Time Home Buyers

Even in a tough housing market, there are major cities where owning a home is no more expensive than renting one. According to a recent Zillow analysis, Jacksonville, Fla., offers the best chance for first-time buyers.

The study, conducted in February, ranked the country’s 50 largest markets for aspiring homeowners based on a combination of four key metrics: the portion of income spent on rent (paying less means more savings for a down payment); the portion of available homes that the median earner can afford to buy (defined as requiring no more than 30 percent of median household income for housing costs); the total number of affordable listings per rental household (more listings means less competition); and the portion of residents between the ages of 29 and 43 (an appealing community of peers for younger buyers).

In most markets, the cost of ownership is much higher than the cost of renting, said Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow. But in Jacksonville, it’s easier to shift from renting to owning because the median mortgage payment is roughly on par with the typical rent. Assuming a 20 percent down payment, Mr. Divounguy said, the median monthly mortgage payment was $1,680 in February, while the typical rent was $1,672.

“If rent is more affordable, you can actually save for a down payment, and you’re in better shape to finally be able to buy your first home,” he said.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, National Real Estate | 75 Comments

The good old days

Posted on May 6, 2026 by grim

From the NY Post:

Modest New Jersey home listed for $800K just sold for $1.18M after an insane bidding war with 16 offers

The kitchen cabinets are from 1923. There’s no bathroom on the main floor. By any conventional measure, 25 Burnett Terrace in Maplewood, New Jersey should have been a tough sell.

Instead, it became the hottest home in town.

Listed for $800,000 on March 9, the three-bedroom Colonial drew 100 buyer groups across three open houses and 25 private showings before closing on April 16 for $1.18 million — 49% above its asking price, with 16 competing offers on the table.

Mark Slade, the Keller Williams Midtown Direct Realty agent who listed the property alongside his wife MaryCeu Nunes, said he never saw it coming — at least not at that level.

“We were hoping to get mid-to-high $900,000s for it,” Slade told NJ.com. “If we were lucky, maybe break into the million mark.”

They more than broke through.

From the first showing on a Thursday to an accepted offer the following Tuesday, the whole thing was over in five days, he told The Post. Slade credits a combination of aggressive preparation, unconventional marketing and a fortunate lack of competition that week in the $800,000 price band.
…
“This was the perfect storm at that week, we weren’t really competing against too much.” Slade told The Post. “This was listed at $800,000, which was less than the average price, which definitely attracted more buyers. It was the sweet spot.”

Of the 16 offers that came in, three finished within roughly $1,000 of one another. The winning buyer separated themselves not on price alone but on terms, agreeing to cover the real estate commission and the mansion tax triggered by sales above $1 million — a combined savings of roughly $18,000 for the seller, who purchased the home in 2001 for $300,000.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 78 Comments

Passaic, Somerset, and Morris fastest NJ movers

Posted on May 5, 2026 by grim

From NJ.com:

3 N.J. counties seeing homes fly off the market 

Home buyers seem back in the market.

Seven counties across the state saw homes sell in a median time of about a month, according to the latest data from Realtor.com.

Three in particular — Passaic, Somerset and Morris — were among the fastest selling statewide with a median of 25 days. 

Homes in Salem County sold at the slowest pace: 64 days. 

The quick turnaround may have something to do with the time of year, according to a recent Redfin report.

“Sellers are coming out of the woodwork as they notice demand from buyers creeping up,” according to the report. “We are also in the midst of prime home-selling season, when homes are more likely to sell above their asking price, and to sell faster.”

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate | 56 Comments

NYC banning flipping?

Posted on May 4, 2026 by grim

From Gothamist:

Home flipping in NYC is hiking prices, pushing out Black residents, report says


Home flipping — the practice of quickly buying and reselling properties, often from distressed owners — is driving up home prices and reducing affordability in New York City neighborhoods with significant Black populations, according to a new analysis from the Pratt Center for Community Development.

Some 10,000 homes were flipped in the five boroughs from 2021 to 2025, with the highest rates of activity in disproportionately Black sections of Brooklyn, Queens, the Bronx, Staten Island and Manhattan, according to the community planning group, an affiliate of Brooklyn-based Pratt Institute.

Critics of the practice contend that real estate investors target cost-burdened lower-income and senior owners — sometimes using deceptive practices — and make minimum repairs before quickly selling or “flipping” properties at huge profits for themselves, not the original owner.

“Our latest community-engaged research publication shows that home flipping continues to drive up home prices in neighborhoods of color,” Alexa Kasdan, executive director of Pratt Center for Community Development, said in a statement.

The report lands amid increased attention to affordability issues across New York City. It calls attention to the Pratt Center’s earlier research tying home flipping to population declines among Black city residents — and continued need for legislation to stem the practice.

“This contributes to New York City’s record-high housing costs, growing racialized wealth inequality, and loss of Black residents,” the report says. “In a moment of renewed political momentum to tackle the affordability crisis, there is both urgent need and opportunity to enact policies that curb corporate speculation on New York City’s small homes.”

Real estate interests have opposed legislative efforts to clampdown on home flipping, contending quick resales are a legitimate business practice.

The New York State Association of Realtors said in a memorandum to state lawmakers that efforts to discourage quick resales, including by raising transfer taxes on such transactions, were misguided, would drastically curtail investment in aged properties, and would do nothing to boost the supply of affordable housing.

Posted in Housing Bubble, National Real Estate, NYC, Politics | 29 Comments

Covid boom officially dead

Posted on May 2, 2026 by grim

From the Real Deal:

Denver leads nation in home value losses after post-pandemic surge

Denver’s long-running housing cooldown just hit a new depth.

Home values in the Mile High City fell 2.2 percent year over year in February, representing the sharpest decline among major U.S. metros, Realtor.com reported, citing the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index. The drop outpaced other softening markets like Tampa, Seattle and Phoenix, and stands in stark contrast to the national average, which rose 0.7 percent over the same period.

The data underscores how quickly Denver has shifted from a pandemic-era darling to one of the country’s weakest-performing housing markets. The slide reflects both local pressures and a broader cooling trend that began in the Sun Belt and is now bleeding into adjacent regions, according to S&P experts cited by Realtor.com. 

Colorado’s housing troubles have been building for more than a year. Prices are elevated compared to many inland markets, yet momentum has clearly reversed. Agents and analysts point to a surge in inventory, rising insurance costs and a sharp pullback in demand for condominiums and townhomes — large portions of the Denver market — as key drivers behind the downturn, Westword reported. Condo values have lagged behind single-family homes, while an influx of new listings has given buyers more leverage after years of constrained supply. At the same time, higher costs, especially property insurance, are reshaping affordability calculations and sidelining some would-be buyers.

The market reversal highlights a broader recalibration across once high-flying secondary markets. Several pandemic boomtowns are now working through excess supply and demand fatigue, according to Westword.

The Northeast and Midwest were the strongest markets while Denver’s values tumbled. Chicago led the pack among major U.S. metro areas with 5 percent annual growth, followed by New York with 4.7 percent and Cleveland with 4.2 percent. 

Posted in Demographics, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 42 Comments

Don’t bet on lower rates

Posted on May 1, 2026 by grim

From MPA:

Iran conflict, oil shocks and Fed uncertainty could keep mortgage rates sticky

Mortgage rates ticked up again this week, arresting a three-week slide – and continuing uncertainty over the rate outlook amid the ongoing US-Iran war still appears to be weighing on the housing outlook as the spring market clicks into gear.

Freddie Mac said on Thursday that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.30% for the week ended April 30, moving borrowing costs slightly higher (but still significantly below their level from the same time last year).

Oil prices spiked again on Thursday after President Trump suggested the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could continue for months, raising the prospect of broader inflation pressures and continuing pain at the pumps.

The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates on hold on Wednesday partly reflected its concern at the possibility of an inflationary surge, and elevated bond yields mean mortgage rates mightn’t see much relief anytime soon.

Melissa Cohn (pictured top), regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, told Mortgage Professional America the impact of the conflict on the mortgage outlook had only been negative, with the prospect of further damage if the economy weakens.

“Rates have probably gone up half a percent since the war began. And while yes, we got some easing [recently], banks have all been repricing for the worst today,” she said in the aftermath of the Fed’s latest decision. “The longer the war in Iran remains ongoing, the higher oil prices go, and the worse it’s going to get.”
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Chances of sticky inflation and longer-than-expected price pressures could mean the Fed will stay on the sidelines throughout the entire year, Cohn said.

“You never know because everything changes and turns on a dime in this world, but it’s quite unlikely that the Fed is going to cut rates this year at all,” she said. “Certainly not at least through the summer, and things would have to change pretty radically for the Fed to be in a position to vote to cut rates.”

Posted in Mortgages, National Real Estate | 74 Comments

Next boom coming?

Posted on April 30, 2026 by grim

From ROI-NJ:

Rutgers study says New Jersey housing construction surged in early 2020s

New Jersey is on pace to build about 45% more houses in the 2020s than were built in the 2010s, an emerging shift in long-term construction trends identified in the latest Rutgers Regional Report published this month.

From 2020 to 2024, the state produced nearly 180,000 housing units and experienced its strongest five-year production level since the 1980s. If these trends persist, the potential production upswing of the 2020s — 359,300 units — would represent the highest decade of the 21st century.

While the national housing shortage is severe — the National Association of Home Builders estimates the U.S. needs 1.2 million additional units to restore normal vacancy rates — New Jersey’s constraints are more acute because of limited land, high population density, and restrictive zoning, driving up home costs and rents.

The study, titled “From Farmland to Suburban Front Yards to High Density Frontiers: Housing Production in the Garden State Since 1940,” marks the 42nd installment of the Rutgers Regional Report and provides a long-term perspective on the cyclical nature of housing production trends in New Jersey.

The report was authored by James W. Hughes, a university professor and dean emeritus of Rutgers’ Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy, and Connie Hughes, former chief of management and policy in the New Jersey Office of the Governor.

“New Jersey’s housing production rollercoaster has been defined by long-term crests and falls since the 1940s – from the postwar golden age of home building in the 1950s and 1960s to the prolonged slowdown that followed,” James Hughes said. “The increase in construction during the 2020s so far suggests a potential turning point that adds important context to ongoing policy discussions about housing supply in New Jersey.”

As the nation’s most densely populated state, New Jersey faces persistent pressure on its housing supply.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Housing Bubble, New Development, New Jersey Real Estate | 54 Comments

Say hi to our new neighbors

Posted on April 29, 2026 by grim

From RE-NJ:

Sherrill signs order to speed housing production, eyeing cross-agency council with key deadlines

Gov. Mikie Sherrill is making a push to accelerate housing production in the state, announcing plans for a new multiagency council and several other steps to reduce barriers to development.

The effort, launched by an executive order signed Monday, includes three deadlines in the next five months that the administration aims to meet as part of a so-called whole-of-government approach. First among them is the launch by June 11 of a Housing Governing Council chaired by the state’s chief operating officer and co-chaired by the state Department of Community Affairs, New Jersey Housing and Mortgage Finance Agency, Economic Development Authority and NJ Transit, with participation from several other agencies.

Within 60 days, by June 27, Executive Order No. 17 directs those agencies to conduct a process, budgetary, regulatory and land review ahead of a required housing affordability report to Sherrill’s office, according to the announcement. That will pave the way for the third deadline, Sept. 24, by which the council must issue recommendations in five key areas:

  • Defining housing goals for the administration  
  • Tracking and accelerating housing production  
  • Developing unutilized and surplus state property into housing  
  • Coordinating funding and financing processes for housing development 
  • Inventorying and increasing access to affordable housing opportunities

“We can’t make New Jersey more affordable without making housing more affordable,” Sherrill said. “With this Executive Order, we are aligning every tool at our disposal to accelerate housing production and make it easier for families to put down roots in the communities they love. Signed within our first 100 days, this action underscores our commitment to lowering costs, strengthening communities and delivering real results for New Jerseyans. Because when we build more housing, we open the door to opportunity for everyone.”  
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Notably, the executive order requires each report by the Housing Governing Council members to highlight immediate actions state government could take to:

  • Accelerate housing production
  • Cut red tape
  • Build on state-owned land
  • Increase coordination among agencies
  • Remove unnecessary regulatory barriers and
  • Increase transparency for state processes
Posted in New Development, New Jersey Real Estate, Politics | 128 Comments

Unicorns roam here

Posted on April 28, 2026 by grim

From the Courier Post:

In NJ, you’ll pay more for your yard than almost anywhere in the U.S.

Dreaming of a big yard and a white picket fence? In New Jersey, that may cost you a pretty penny.

According to a recent study by the New Jersey Real Estate Network, New Jerseyans pay some of the highest prices for their yards. Out of all 50 states, New Jersey ranked as the eighth-most expensive for yard space.

The study showed that the average cost of a square foot of yard space is $42.01 in New Jersey, which is approximately 65% more expensive than the national average.

This is roughly half the cost per square foot of California — which has the highest at $80.32 per square foot — but is several times more expensive than land in Alaska, which averages $2.15 per square foot.

New Jersey ranked better than neighboring New York, which came in third place at $53.74 per square foot.

Posted in Housing Bubble, New Jersey Real Estate, Where's the Beef? | 112 Comments

Bring your money

Posted on April 27, 2026 by grim

From Fortune:

Florida’s influx of rich residents is killing the middle class and housing market

For decades, the Sunshine State has been seen as, well, sunny and bright. Florida has no income tax, and many metros had a cost of living that allowed for the working class, like teachers, nurses, and hospitality workers, to build a comfortable, middle-class lifestyle.

But times are changing. 

The pandemic ushered in a massive wave of wealthy transplants, forcing home prices higher and making the Sunshine State one of the biggest losers in today’s housing market.

Florida gained more wealth from high-earning transplants than any other state in 2023, according to Internal Revenue Service data. The Sunshine State gained $20.65 billion in annual adjusted gross income from tax filers who moved there from another U.S. state, a Realtor.com analysis published March 27 shows. The average income of people who moved to Florida from another state was $122,530, the highest among all U.S. states, according to Gay Cororaton, chief economist for the Miami Realtors.

“This wealth migration has been the primary factor driving up prices, with prices continuing to climb due to strong demand, even when mortgage rates started to hit over 5% in 2022 and as rates have remained elevated to over 6.5% to date,” Cororaton told Fortune.

So as wealth comes in, other income groups are getting pushed out. Now the people who staff the restaurants, hospitals, and classrooms are leaving, and the middle class is dissolving.

“What we’re seeing isn’t just a housing shift: It’s a reshaping of who can realistically afford to live in these markets,” Tara Benson, a Douglas Elliman real estate agent who works both in Florida and New York City, told Fortune. “When buyers coming in have significantly more purchasing power than local residents, it doesn’t just push prices up. It pushes entire income groups out.”
…
Between 2019 and 2023, Florida absorbed a net $137 billion in income from other states, according to Miami Realtors’ analysis of IRS migration data. Over the same period, California lost $91 billion, and New York lost $76 billion. Many of those wealthy transplants chased a limited supply of Florida homes, ultimately driving up home prices—and making affordability more challenging for other income groups.

In Miami-Dade, the median annual single-family prices spiked 10.1% in 2020, surged 23% in 2021—an all-time high pace—and rose another 11.1% in 2022, Cororaton said. Meanwhile, the share of million-dollar homes in Miami-Dade surged from 8% in 2019 to 28% in Q1 2026. In Palm Beach County, nearly one-third of homes are valued at least $1 million, according to data from Cororaton.

“Low rates lit the match, tight supply fed it, investors added heat, and wealthy newcomers poured gasoline on it,” Arman Javaherian, CEO of the homebuying platform Homa and a former Zillow executive, told Fortune.

Posted in Demographics, Economics, Employment, Housing Bubble, National Real Estate | 96 Comments